Mercury News Editorial

Posted: 08/12/2009 08:00:00 PM PDT


Coming soon: Swine Flu 2009 — the sequel. Major outbreaks around the world lend credence to the theory that a second, and perhaps more dangerous, round of the pandemic will strike the United States this fall. The death of a 37-year-old Stanislaus County man Tuesday brought the number of California fatalities so far to 92.

Flu viruses are unpredictable, which puts federal health officials in a difficult spot. The government has the ability to vaccinate virtually every American in the months ahead. But that could cost as much as $8 billion, and it would not be without risk, since every vaccine carries the potential for side effects.

Despite the risks, the U.S. health officials should ramp up vaccine production. A pandemic could result in tens of thousands of deaths and hundreds of thousands of hospitalizations, costing an estimated $450 billion. That would dwarf the expense of vaccinations. And there's reason to believe that the side effects of this vaccine will be minimal, given the safety of vaccines for previous strains of this virus.

It's maddening that it still takes months to develop and produce flu vaccines to combat new strains of a virus. This is because the vaccine industry still uses ancient technology that involves growing the virus in millions of chicken eggs, a technique developed during World War II. Every flu vaccine dose requires three eggs to be injected with different strains of the virus.

The Bush administration deserves credit for giving the Centers for Disease Control $6 billion two years ago to research new methods of creating and stockpiling anti-viral drugs. But that new technology remains in the development stage.

For the government to have enough vaccine to immunize Americans this fall, Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius began placing orders with manufacturers earlier this summer. Clinical tests to ascertain the safety of the vaccines are being conducted on volunteers at eight locations, the closest to here being Seattle. If those tests go well, the government could give the go-ahead to try to vaccinate every American during a window of less than two months and possibly within a single month.

To date, the pandemic seems relatively mild. But if it starts to hit hard in the weeks ahead, it may force health officials to decide whether to start releasing the vaccines before testing is fully complete. That would also create a dilemma for Americans considering whether to be vaccinated.

The vaccine industry has decades of experience with the H1N1 virus and a solid record of producing safe vaccines. If the initial tests show good results, Sebelius should move forward with releasing the latest vaccine if a severe outbreak begins.

A normal flu season kills about 36,000 Americans and hospitalizes 200,000. The swine flu has already killed some 400 Americans and is believed to have infected 1 million people across the United States. Moving forward as quickly as possible with the best vaccine technology available is a wise investment against the threat of a pandemic.

http://www.mercurynews.com/opinion/ci_13047569