In comments which will reignite fears of a relapse into a second financial
crisis, the IMF said that
banks have yet to bolster their balance sheets sufficiently and could be
vulnerable to a whole range of shocks in the coming months.
It also indicated that with governments including the UK and the US borrowing
so much in the next few years, there was an increasing chance of a sovereign
debt crisis, something which could trigger chaos for public and private
sectors alike.
The warnings formed part of the IMF's update to its Global
Financial Stability Report and World Economic Outlook, which its
managing director, Dominique Strauss-Kahn is planning to roadshow at the
World Economic Forum in Davos this week.
The Fund said that, despite the remaining risks to the economic and financial
system, policy-makers had "forestalled another Great Depression",
and raised its growth forecasts for almost every economy in the world both
this year and the next.
It lifted its world growth forecast this year by 0.75pc to 3.9pc, and in an
unexpected boost to the Chancellor, Alistair Darling, it lifted its UK
forecast by 0.4pc points this year to 1.3pc, putting it in line with the
Treasury's own projection.
However, the good news was overshadowed by its fresh warnings about the
vulnerability of the banking system. It said that although it was likely to
revise its estimate of losses derived from the global financial crisis from
its October $3.4 trillion (£2.1 trillion) estimate, banks had still failed
to reinforce their balance sheets sufficiently.
It said: "Even though some bank capital has been raised, substantial
additional capital may be needed to support the recovery of credit and
sustain economic growth under expected new Basel capital adequacy standards".
Banking analysts recently estimated that Barclays would need to raise an extra
£17bn in capital to comply with the new rules, with other banks facing
similarly large bills. With some insiders suggesting that even the new
stricter Basel rules on capital do not go far enough, the potential cost
could be higher still.
The IMF also warned that banks face "a wall of maturities looming ahead
through 2011–13" in their shorter-term funding. It added: "A
future retrenchment in confidence therefore could severely weaken banks'
ability to roll over this debt."
However, it is not merely the banks themselves that have caused the IMF
concern. It name-checked the UK as one country facing particular scrutiny
over the state and sustainability of its public finances, saying the extra
debt raised by the Government could, at the very least, "crowd out
private sector credit growth, gradually raising interest rates for private
borrowers and putting a drag on the economic recovery."
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