http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/stone/10yrstudy.pdf
IMPACT OF THE WAL-MART PHENOMENON
ON RURAL COMMUNITIES
Published in Proceedings
Increasing Understanding of Public Problems and Policies - 1997
By
Farm Foundation
Chicago, Illinois
Kenneth E. Stone
Professor of Economics
Iowa State University
For additional information, contact:
Dr. Kenneth E. Stone
460 Heady Hall
Iowa State University
Ames, IA 50011
Phone:(515) 294-6269
Fax: (515) 294-1700
E-mail:kstone@iastate.edu
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IMPACT OF THE WAL-MART PHENOMENON ON RURAL COMMUNITIES
Kenneth E. Stone
Iowa State University
There is strong evidence that rural communities in the United States have been
more adversely impacted by the discount mass merchandisers (sometimes referred to as
the Wal-Mart phenomenon) than by any other factors in recent times. Studies in Iowa
have shown that some small towns lose up to 47 percent of their retail trade after 10 years
of Wal-Mart stores nearby (Stone 1997).
Overview
The discount mass merchandisers are not the only threats that small town retailers
have faced. In the more distant past, mail order catalogs distributed by Montgomery
Ward and Sears Roebuck in the late 1800s caused quite a stir at the time (Mahoney). The
mail order catalogs offered large selections at competitive prices. Coincidentally, a well-
established railroad system provided nation-wide delivery of mail order goods within a few
to several weeks. At its peak, Sears Roebuck offered over 100,000 items through its
catalog and captured some sales from local merchants.
The next major threat to rural retailers was the automobile. In the 1920s and
1930s automobiles and roads developed to the point where rural residents gained
considerable mobility and could more easily leave their small home towns and travel to
shop at larger towns and cities. However, this trend was slowed in the 1930s because of
the Great Depression and in the early 1940s because of World War II and its resultant
shortage of goods. The late 1940s were boom times for retailers in both rural areas and
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larger cities because of the relative prosperity and the great pent-up demand resulting from
the Great Depression and World War II.
Shopping malls began to appear in larger trade centers in the 1950s and 1960s.
Rural residents were strongly attracted to the new malls because of their ease of access,
large selections, controlled climate, easy and free parking and their extended shopping
hours. Shopping malls fundamentally changed the way Americans shopped. They drew
shoppers from the downtown to the shopping center location, typically at the edge of
town or in a suburb. Shopping centers caused the demise of downtown, most of which
have never fully recovered.
A new format, called discount department stores, began appearing in the 1960s. In
fact, K Mart, Wal-Mart and Target stores all began operations in 1962. These were not
the first discount department stores, but they turned out to be the largest chains. The
three companies expanded in completely different ways, however. K Mart initially located
stores in relatively large communities and spread rapidly across the United States and
Canada and within six or eight years had become a truly national chain (Discount Store
News).
Wal-Mart, on the other hand, initially located its stores in small Southern towns.
By opening a relatively large store in a small town, Wal-Mart could quickly become a
dominant store (Walton). Furthermore, Wal-Mart’s founder, Sam Walton, did not want
to outrun his logistical support, namely his distribution centers. Consequently, Wal-Mart
progressed methodically across the United States, always building stores within a days
drive of its distribution centers, and taking over 30 years to become a fully national chain.
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Target stores, owned by Dayton Hudson Company has selectively looked for
markets of opportunity and after 35 years is still not located in all the U.S. states. They
will undoubtedly establish stores in every state within a short time.
The 1980s saw a rapid expansion of the discount department stores. In addition, a
new store format, called “category killer,” began appearing on the scene (Stone 1995).
These were large specialty stores that featured nearly complete selections within their
narrow category. Quickly these stores became dominant and consequently killed off
smaller stores within the category. One of the early category killer stores was Toys R Us
and it remains a dominant toy store today. The building materials category was quickly
dominated by The Home Depot, but Lowes, Builders Square and Menards have also taken
substantial market share. The battle within the office supply category is being fought
among such stores as Office Max, Office Depot and Staples. Many other categories are
being fought over by other category killer stores.
Impacts of Discount Mass Merchandisers
My first study of the impact of Wal-Mart stores was conducted in 1988 to help my
clients (Iowa retailers) understand the impacts so that they could better develop strategies
to remain competitive (Stone 1991). These studies were updated every two years or so in
the 1990s and the results seemed fairly consistent until recent years. In recent years, it
became apparent that the retail situation in Wal-Mart towns was changing. This year a
new study was conducted to determine the situation in Iowa small towns after 10 years of
Wal-Mart stores and those results are reported below (Stone 1997).
The study looked at 34 towns in Iowa that had Wal-Mart stores for at least 10
years. The retail performance of these towns was compared to 15 towns of the same
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population group that did not have Wal-Mart stores. The towns ranged from 5,000
population to 40,000 population. Results for two digit Standard Industrial Classification
Codes (SIC) are discussed below.
General Merchandise. General merchandise stores are department stores and
variety stores and include stores such as Wal-Mart, K Mart and Target. Figure 1 shows
the average change in pull factors (trade area size) for the 10 years following the opening
of a Wal-Mart store.
AL-MART WAL-MART
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The average growth in general merchandise sales for the Wal-Mart
towns was spectacular for the first few years, averaging approximately 50 percent growth
(most of which was obviously Wal-Mart’s). However, after about five years, sales began
declining and after 10 years were 25 percent higher than before the Wal-Mart store
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opened. It is believed that this decline in sales happened because Wal-Mart placed its own
stores too close together, causing a predatory effect. At the same time, the build-up of
large stores in bigger towns and cities captured some sales from even the Wal-Mart towns.
The general merchandise stores in the non Wal-Mart towns began declining
immediately after the Wal-Mart stores opened. Their sales declined by two percent after
the first year and continued declining to a cumulative 34 percent after 10 years. A few of
these towns had a K Mart store (typically an older, smaller store), and all of them had one
or more regional discount store, such as Pamida, Alco or Place’s. It is believed that
people in the towns without Wal-Mart stores migrated to the towns with Wal-Mart stores
to shop for general merchandise.
Eating and Drinking Places. This category includes restaurants of all types and
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various types of drinking establishments such as taverns and cocktail lounges. Most of the
sales occur in the eating places and they continue to grow. The changes in sales of eating
and drinking places are shown in figure 2.
As can be seen the sales of eating and drinking establishments increased from three
to seven percent over the state-wide average for the Wal-Mart towns. Conversely, the
sales of eating and drinking places in the non Wal-Mart towns immediately declined and
after 10 years were still nine percent below the statewide average. These results indicate
that people leave the non Wal-Mart towns to shop in the Wal-Mart towns and while there,
patronize the eating and drinking places.
Home Furnishings. Home furnishings stores consist of furniture stores, major
appliance stores, drapery stores, etc. Early studies in Iowa showed that these types of
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benefited from having a Wal-Mart store in town with its large drawing power.
Figure 3 shows the 10-year results.
The initial spill-over benefit enjoyed by home furnishings stores in the Wal-Mart
towns eventually eroded somewhat as several later towns had stores so weak that they
could not capture this trade. As can be seen in figure 3, however, home furnishings sales
in the Wal-Mart towns declined only slightly, compared to the sales in the non Wal-Mart
towns which ended up declining by 31 percent after 10 years. It is believed that when
consumers leave the non Wal-Mart towns to out-shop for one or more items, they
probably also use these occasions to shop for home furnishings.
Building Materials. The building materials category consists of lumberyards,
home improvement centers, hardware stores, and paint and glass stores.
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consequently suffer losses of sales. Figure 5 shows the change in sales for specialty stores
in the 10 years following the opening of a Wal-Mart store.
Specialty store sales in the Wal-Mart towns declined by 10 percent after three
years of a Wal-Mart store, but then the situation improved to only a five percent decline
until year eight when the decline became 12 percent, then further declined to 17 percent by
the end of year 10. This illustrates that stores selling the same merchandise as a Wal-Mart
store will most probably lose sales after a Wal-Mart store opens in their town.
In the non Wal-Mart towns specialty store sales steadily declined after the
introduction of Wal-Mart stores in nearby towns, to a low of 29 percent by the end of year
7. This level of sales held fairly steady and year 10 showed a cumulative 28 percent
decline. Compared to the year before the Wal-Mart store opened. It seems obvious that
residents of the Wal-Mart towns were leaving their towns to shop either in the Wal-Mart
towns or other larger trade centers.
Apparel Stores. Apparel stores include clothing stores for men, women and
children plus shoe stores. Figure 6 shows the changes in apparel stores in Iowa towns
after the introduction of Wal-Mart stores.
Apparel store sales dropped fairly steadily in the Wal-Mart towns in the years
following the opening of a Wal-Mart store, ending at 28 percent below the pre-Wal-Mart
level after 10 years. This probably means that primarily the stores selling low-end apparel
that competed directly with the apparel sold at a Wal-Mart store suffered these losses.
The apparel stores in non Wal-Mart towns also suffered a steady decline in sales in
the years after a nearby Wal-Mart opening, ending year 10 at the same level as apparel
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The non Wal-Mart towns, however, suffered a worse fate than the Wal-Mart
towns as their total sales continually decreased over the 10-year period, ultimately ending
15 percent lower than the pre-Wal-Mart level.
Small Town Losses. It is clear that among the mid-size towns discussed above,
the Wal-Mart towns fared somewhat better than the non Wal-Mart towns. But what was
the impact of the mass merchandiser stores on the hundreds of towns with populations of
less than 5,000? Figure 8 shows the percent change in sales of these towns from 1983
(the first year that Wal-Mart stores opened in Iowa) through 1996.
It becomes clear that towns under 5,000 population bear the brunt of the discount mass
merchandisers. In most cases these towns do not have a critical mass of retail stores
Figure 9
Changes in Shopping Habits
After discount mass merchandisers operate in an area for an extended period of
time, people gravitate to these stores and consequently cause losses of sales to smaller
competing stores. Figure 10 shows changes in the buying habits of Iowa Consumers for
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The average Iowa consumer spent 42 percent more money in department stores
(primarily discount stores) in 1996 than he or she did in 1983. At the other extreme, on
average, consumers spent 59 percent less in men’s & boy’s clothing stores and this
resulted in the loss of over 60 percent of these stores during this period.
Public Policy Implications
Public officials often get involved in regulations and statutes concerning the
establishment of new mass merchandiser stores. At the state level, Vermont officials
attempted to keep the Wal-Mart Company from establishing stores in that state. The
policy was well intended and was meant to protect the predominantly small merchants in a
small state. However, as time went on, it soon became obvious that the ban was having
the opposite effect. As Wal-Mart built stores on the New Hampshire (a no sales tax state)
border and on the New York border, it soon began to suck the trade out of Vermont. It is
not possible to put fences around a state to keep residents from out-shopping.
Organizations within many municipalities have attempted to prevent mass
merchandisers from locating in their areas. Most often, this resistance is organized and
supported by local merchants who fear the competition. However, in more and more
cases, people who are genuinely concerned about preservation of historic sites and natural
resources, organize the resistance. A complicating factor in these local debates are growth
oriented local officials such as mayors, city administrators, city council members, county
council members, etc. Quite often they look at the short-term benefits of more
employment, and increased tax base. But in the long term, the situation often results in
the loss of local businesses, which reduces employment and tax base. In more and more
cases local officials are actively recruiting the mass merchandisers to their communities
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and offering attractive incentives. Representatives from the outlying smaller towns have
the least representation in this decision-making process and consequently they suffer the
greatest losses.
Conclusions and Recommendations
Rural communities have been losing retail sales to larger towns ever since
Montgomery Ward and Sears Roebuck started their mail order businesses. However, the
leakage of retail trade from small towns has accelerated in the last two decades with the
rapid proliferation of discount mass merchandiser stores in the larger towns and cities.
Studies in Iowa have shown that some towns below 5,000 population have lost nearly half
their retail trade in the last 13 years. Public officials are placed in difficult situations as
they decide whether to recruit and/or approve the establishment of new mass merchandiser
stores. There is a need for an educational program aimed at public officials, to help them
make better decisions regarding this problem.
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How Local Merchants Can Compete
The following tips have proven effective in competing with the retail giants.
Attitudes and Actions
In general, it is best to take a positive attitude toward the opening of a new mass
merchandise store in your area. The following thoughts are offered in this regard.
• In a free enterprise economy, all firms are free to compete. However, local
officials should be careful not to offer unduly generous incentives to large firms
that could place smaller firms at a disadvantage.
• Recognize that a discount mass merchandise store will probably enlarge
your town’s retail trade area size. Try to figure out ways to capitalize on the
increased volume of traffic in your town.
• It is possible to co-exist and even thrive in this type of environment.
• You may need to change your methods of operations as described below.
Merchandise Tips
The following suggestions are offered with regard to merchandise mix.
• Try to handle different merchandise. If you sell the same brand, variety or
style of merchandise as the mass merchandisers, you will be compared on
price. If you can hold your price within 10 to 15 percent of theirs’, you are
probably okay. However, if you allow your prices to rise, say 50 percent
higher than they do’, then you are in trouble as consumers will perceive that
everything else you sell is higher priced also. The solution is to handle
different brands, varieties, styles, etc. Many merchants are finding that private
label merchandise works well when available.
• Try to handle complementary merchandise. In many areas, the mass
merchandisers handle only fast moving items. For example some of the mass
merchandise garden centers handle only two or three varieties of hostas. Hosta
fans soon learn they will not find selection at these stores. However, if you fill
out your lines with new and different hostas, you can gain the reputation of
being the hosta center.
• Look for voids in the mass merchandiser’s inventory. Most mass
merchandisers do not carry a very good selection of plumbing supplies. It
would behoove local hardware owners to carry a complete line of plumbing
supplies to fill these voids, if it fits their operation and the market.
• Consider upscale merchandise. Not all customers desire or demand lower
priced merchandise. For example, most mass merchandisers handle low-end
apparel. Clothing dealers who serve middle-to-upper income households might
want to handle more upscale apparel.
• Get rid of the “dogs.” Nearly all businesses end up with some merchandise
that does not sell and ends up cluttering the sales space. This is bad for at least
two reasons, 1) merchandise must turn to generate a profit, and 2) old
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merchandise tarnishes the image of your store. Merchants should identify the
“dogs” and clear them out by whatever means possible.
• Buy well. From time to time, nearly all merchants have an opportunity to
purchase merchandise at exceptional prices. If the merchandise is something
you know you can sell, you should take advantage of the good buys. With
good buys you can enhance your pricing image while making better profit
margins. Storeowners should also be on the lookout for opportunities to
purchase cooperatively with other local merchants or through a larger buying
cooperative.
Marketing Tips.
There are always ways of improving marketing practices. The following tips are
offered to merchants regardless of their competition.
• Know your customers. It is important to know the demographics of your
trade area in order to have the optimal merchandise mix. The breakdown of
the population by income, age, occupation, etc. is available from census data,
which can be found at most libraries. In addition, several marketing firms can
quickly generate a detailed report, tailored to your specific trade area for a
nominal fee. One such company is CACI Marketing Systems at (800) 292-
CACI. You may also want to conduct customer focus groups where diverse
groups of customers under the direction of a third party moderator, discuss
what they like and dislike about your business. These can be done by
community colleges, other colleges and universities and by private consultants.
• Extended opening hours is a necessity! Lifestyles have changed dramatically
in the last generation. Now it is quite common for a household to have
multiple wage earners working outside the household. Most of these people
simply cannot get to local stores to shop if they stay open only from 8:00 a.m.
to 5:00 p.m., and by necessity, they shop at mass merchandisers and shopping
malls where the opening hours are in tune with today’s societal needs.
Downtown merchants and other independent merchants can not seriously
compete in this environment unless they cooperate and offer similar convenient
opening hours.
• Adopt a “no hassle” returns policy. Most mass merchandisers have very
liberal return policies and they have shaped consumer’s expectations.
Unfortunately, some independent merchants have more restrictive policies,
which frustrate and anger customers. Studies have shown that angry
customers typically tell 10 to 20 other people about their bad experience and
this can be disastrous for your store. It is essential that independent merchants
adopt returns policies similar to those of the mass merchandisers. This policy
should be stated on signs at the checkout station, as well as on receipts and
shopping bags, so that there is no doubt in the customer’s mind about the
policy. Signs such as “All sales final!” have little place in today’s retail stores.
• Sharpen your pricing skills. Most customers judge the pricing structure of
your store on the few things they know of price of. Consequently, if you are
selling a popular brand of soft-white incandescent light bulbs for 200 percent
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more than the mass merchandisers, they declare your store to be high priced,
when in fact, most of your other products may be competitively priced. The
solution is variable markup, where you identify several “price sensitive” items
and mark them down to be competitive with the mass merchandisers.
Furthermore these price sensitive items should be prominently displayed on end
caps and other conspicuous places. Conversely, on unique items or items
where you are the sole source, you can take higher markups.
• Focus your advertising. Stress your competitive advantage. Every business
must have one or more competitive advantages, in the eyes of the customer, in
order to succeed. For example Sears established a huge competitive advantage
many years ago when it adopted “Satisfaction Guaranteed.” With Wal-Mart,
“Everyday Low Prices,” is a strong competitive advantage. Smart firms
incorporate these competitive advantage mottoes into nearly every
advertisement. Unfortunately, many smaller merchants do not get their full
money’s worth from their ads because they often fail to promote their
competitive advantages. For example, a nursery that offers free landscape
planning or free delivery ought to incorporate these facts into every ad. After
a period of repetition, customers will automatically know your competitive
advantages and may patronize your store when the need arises.
Service Tips
Superior service can become an important competitive advantage for many smaller
businesses. Large chain stores usually don’t have the flexibility to offer many of these
services.
• Emphasize expert technical advice. It is difficult to find workers in discount
mass merchandise stores who know the merchandise. Many smaller stores
build a loyal clientele base because the owner and employees are able to help
customers analyze their problems and help them to find the necessary tools,
supplies and equipment.
• Offer deliveries where appropriate. Many customers, because of schedules
or health problems, have a need for deliveries. Others have a need for delivery
of certain items that are heavy or bulky. Typically mass merchandisers cannot
respond to these needs. Some smaller merchants can carve out a substantial
market share by offering delivery service.
• Offer on-site installation and service of certain items. Many people have a
need for services such as professional tree planting, sod installation, tree
pruning, etc. Larger discount stores cannot readily provide this service.
Independent merchants can draw a substantial volume of trade by providing
these and other services.
• Develop special order capability. It is not possible for merchants to carry
every conceivable item in inventory. However, they should make arrangements
with suppliers or cooperating partner stores to quickly ship out-of-stock
merchandise. So rather than let a customer walk out the door when an item is
not in stock, it is better to say, “I’m sorry I do not have it in stock, but I can
get it for you in two days.”
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• Offer other services as appropriate. Independent merchants can develop
many loyal customers by offering “how to do it” classes, rentals of certain
Items that will boost sales of collateral merchandise, a branch post office, etc.
Customer Relations Tips
In past years, small businesses had the reputation of excellent customer relations.
However, nowadays many consumers perceive that they are treated no better in small
firms than in larger ones. Research has shown that poor customer relations are the
primary reason that customers quit doing business with a store. The following suggestions
are offered for all businesses.
• Make sure customers are “greeted.” According to surveys, the primary
thing that offends customers is the failure to be greeted or acknowledged when
entering a store. This is particularly acute when the customer is in a buying
mood. All store personnel should be trained to “greet” customers when they
enter a store, determine their needs and assist them in any way possible.
• Offer customers a smile instead of a frown. It’s a fact that all customers
prefer doing business where they are treated in a friendly manner.
• Make employees “associates.” Firms like J.C. Penney, Wal-Mart and The
Home Depot call their employees associates and treat them as part of the team.
Independent merchants can emulate this. In particular, regular store meetings
should be held where everyone is apprised of the latest happenings and plans
and where all problems and suggestions can be aired.
• Solicit complaints. Many times customers have had a bad experience in a
store, but they are reluctant to complain to store personnel for various reasons.
Instead, they go around complaining to other people. Good merchants would
rather hear of the complaint first so they can find a remedy. They should
provide an environment where customers feel comfortable complaining. This
can be done by soliciting complaints through ads in the media, through signs at
the checkout counter and on shopping bags. You must be prepared; however,
to solve these problems when complaints are made.
• Learn how to handle irate customers. Dealing with irate customers is
something that few people enjoy, but it is crucial to the success of the business.
The worst thing store representatives can do is to argue with or be rude to an
irate customer. The following process with the acronym of LEAR is
recommended. (L) Listen. It is easy to become defensive and turn off the
customer while you are thinking of your response, but it pays to set everything
aside and listen intently. (E) Empathize. Put yourself in the shoes of the
customer and think how you would like the situation resolved. (A) Ask. Ask
questions to get all the facts on the table. (R) Resolve. Resolve the situation
to the satisfaction of the customer. Most merchants have found that by merely
asking, “What do you see as a reasonable solution?” they can achieve a win-
win solution.
• Train employees (often). In the eyes of the customer, the employee is the
business. Training employees can have one of the highest payoffs of any
investment in the business. New employees should be trained on store policies
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and in the use of any equipment or machines to be used. As they progress in
the company, they should receive recurring training on new products or
techniques and industry trends. There is an array of training available through
educational institutions, parent companies, suppliers and others. In addition
employees should be given access to trade journals, videotapes and other
educational items.
Continually Improve the Efficiency of Your Business
Businesses may be doing all the right things as mentioned above, but unless they
are efficiently operated, they are probably doomed to failure. Some of the top mass
merchandisers such as Wal-Mart and The Home Depot continually strive to improve their
operating efficiency. The following are some of the things you can do to improve your
efficiency.
• Adopt modern technology. Mass merchandisers have improved their
efficiency dramatically by adopting new technology. Much of that technology
is now available and affordable to the smaller merchant. For example,
powerful computers are available at ever decreasing costs. Software packages
to handle nearly all store functions are also available. Computers reduce the
need for people, improve accuracy and provide quick analyses of the business’
performance. In addition, point of sale (POS) scanner equipment is now
available and affordable to all but the smallest businesses. In addition to
scanning prices and speeding customers through the checkout line, they can
revolutionize inventory control when tied in with the store computer and
ultimately with supplier’s computers.
• Become familiar with your financial statements. Many merchants do not
like to deal with the finances of the business. If they can “farm” this operation
out to a bookkeeper or accountant, they feel “out-of-sight, out-of mind", Good
merchants must become intimately familiar with the finances and operations of
their businesses. They should constantly monitor gross profit margins,
operating expenses, net profits and the various ratios important to the business.
• Relentlessly find ways to reduce operating costs. One of the reasons that
the mass merchandisers can lower prices and still make a profit is that they
their operating costs. In addition to adopting technology, they find ways to
save on utilities, insurance, transportation, etc. They are also always finding
ways to reduce continually reduce “shrinkage” by reducing shoplifting,
pilferage and damage to merchandise. Smaller merchants can do the same
thing.
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References
Discount Store News. “Discounter of the Decade.” December 1989.
Mahoney, Tom. The Great Merchants. New York: Harper & Brothers, 1955.
State of Iowa. Iowa Retail Sales & Use Tax Report. Des Moines, IA, 1976-1996.
Stone, Kenneth E. “Competing with the Mass Merchandisers,” Small Business Forum,
1995.
_______________. Competing with the Retail Giants. New York: John Wiley & Sons,
Vol. 9, No. 1, Spring 1991.
_______________. “The Status of Retail Trade in Iowa’s Small Towns After 10 Years of
Wal-Mart Stores.” Iowa State University Department of Economics, Mimeo, 1997.
Walton, Sam and John Huey. Sam Walton, Made in America. New York: Doubleday,
1992.
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