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Leaked report: Government fears Deepwater Horizon well could become unchecked gusher

By


Ben Raines

April 30, 2010, 2:18PM

View full size(AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais)Homeland
Security Secretary Janet Napolitano uses a map of the Gulf of Mexico
during the daily press briefing at the White House in Washington,
Thursday, April 29, 2010. A leaked memorandum obtained by the
Press-Register on the unfolding spill disaster in the Gulf makes clear
the Coast Guard now fears the Deepwater Horizon well site could be on
the verge of becoming an unchecked gusher shooting millions of gallons
of oil per day into the Gulf. 'The following is not public' document states

View full size(AP Photo/U.S. Coast Guard)This image provided by the U.S. Coast Guard Saturday April 24, 2010, shows
oil leaking from the drill pipe of the Deepwater Horizon drilling rig
after it sank. A confidential government report on the unfolding spill
disaster makes clear the Coast Guard now fears the well could be on the
verge of becoming an unchecked gusher shooting millions of gallons of
oil per day into the Gulf. A confidential
government report on the unfolding spill disaster in the Gulf makes
clear the Coast Guard now fears the well could become an unchecked
gusher shooting millions of gallons of oil per day into the Gulf.

"The following is not public," reads the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration's Emergency Ops document dated April 28. "Two additional
release points were found today. If the riser pipe deteriorates
further, the flow could become unchecked resulting in a release volume
an order of magnitude higher than previously thought."

In scientific circles, an order of magnitude means something is 10 times
larger. In this case, an order of magnitude higher would mean the
volume of oil coming from the well could be 10 times higher than the
5,000 barrels a day coming out now. That would mean 50,000 barrels a
day, or 2.1 million gallons a day. It appears the new leaks mentioned
in the Wednesday release are the leaks reported to the public late
Wednesday night.

"There is no official change in the volume released but the Coast Guard is preparing for a worst-case release,"
continues the document.

The emergency document also states that the spill has grown in size so quickly that only 1 to 2 percent of it
has been sprayed with dispersants.

The Press-Register obtained the emergency report from a government official. The White
House, NOAA, the Coast Guard and BP Plc did not immediately return
calls for comment made early this morning.

The worst-case scenario for the broken and leaking well pouring oil into the Gulf of Mexico
would be the loss of the wellhead and kinked piping currently
restricting the flow to 5,000 barrels -- or 210,000 gallons -- per day.

If the wellhead is lost, oil could leave the well at a much greater rate.

"Typically, a very good well in the Gulf can produce 30,000 barrels a day, but
that's under control. I have no idea what an uncontrolled release could
be," said Stephen Sears, chairman of the petroleum engineering
department at Louisiana State University.

On Thursday, federal officials said they were preparing for the worst-case scenario but didn't elaborate.

Kinks in the piping created as the rig sank to the seafloor may be all that
is preventing the Deepwater Horizon well from releasing its maximum
flow. BP is now drilling a relief well as the ultimate fix. The company
said Thursday that process would take up to 3 months.

"I'm not sure what's happening down there right now. I have heard there is a kink in what's called the riser. The riser is a long pipe
that connects the wellhead to the rig. I really don't know if that kink
is a big restriction. Is that really a big restriction? There could be
another restriction further down," said LSU's Sears. "An analogy would
be if you have a kink in a garden hose. You suspect that kink is
restricting the flow, but there could be another restriction or kink
somewhere else closer to the faucet.

BP Plc executive Doug Suttles said Thursday the company was worried about "erosion" of the pipe at the wellhead.

Sand is an integral part of the formations that hold oil under the Gulf.
That sand, carried in the oil as it shoots through the piping, is
blamed for the ongoing erosion described by BP.

"The pipe could disintegrate. You've got sand getting into the pipe, it's eroding the
pipe all the time, like a sandblaster," said Ron Gouget, a former oil
spill response coordinator for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration.

View full size(AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)Oil scooped up from the Gulf of Mexico 17 miles southeast of the South Pass
of the Mississippi River is seen on the hand of deck hand Jordan Ellis
on the Louisiana coast Friday, April 30, 2010. The oil originated from
a leaking pipeline after last week's explosion and collapse of the
Deepwater Horizon."When the oil is removed
normally, it comes out at a controlled rate. You can still have
abrasive particles in that. Well, now, at this well, its coming out at
fairly high velocity," Gouget continued. "Any erosive grains are
abrading the inside of the pipe and all the steel that comes in contact
with the liquid. It's essentially sanding away the pipe."

The formation that was being drilled by the Deepwater Horizon when it
exploded and sank last week is reported to have tens of millions of
barrels of oil. A barrel contains 42 gallons.

"The loss of a wellhead, this is totally unprecedented," said Gouget. "How bad it
could get from that, you will have a tremendous volume of oil that is
going to be offgassing on the coast. Depending on how much wind is
there, and how those gases build up, that's a significant health
concern." .