UA scientist unravels swine flu mystery
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UA scientist helping unravel the mystery of the swine flu

By Barbara Grijalva - bio | email

The number of swine flu cases is on the rise in Pima County.

On Thursday, the official number rose from 10 to 22.

Maricopa County also had more confirmed cases: 35.

Scientists are working to figure out how H1N1, the swine flu virus, works.

They want to know whether it could get worse over time, or just disappear as mysteriously as it appeared.

Scientists around the world have formed a loose collaboration, sharing information as they take the swine flu virus apart, looking at where it came from, what it might do, and if we can protect ourselves from it.

One of the people searching for answers is right here in Tucson, at the University of Arizona.

He's Dr. Michael Worobey.

"The most likely outcome is that it's not going to increase in virulence. It could happen," He says.

Dr. Worobey is a UA Associate Professor of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology and that, in a nutshell, is what he has been studying.

It's the evolution of various viruses, everything from the virus that causes AIDS, to the swine flu virus.

The scientists have quickly traced the swine flu's genetic history.

"At the rate that we think it evolves, it looks like it traces back quite a few months and we're getting dates sometime around September of last year," Worobey says.

That means it has been with us a while.

"It could have been just gradually spreading under the radar without being noticed," Worobey says.

The researchers also have learned what combinations of viruses merged to create this flu strain.

"And those kinds of inferences are really important because it tells us, for next time, how we prevent these new viruses from arising," Worobey says.

Worobey also is looking at where the virus might be going.

"We don't really know about how our flu season is going to be next year and whether this new variant is even going to survive to circulate next year. We hope it doesn't," he says.

So it could just fizzle out.

But, in any event, unlike times in human history when flu pandemics killed millions, we have several things on our side now.

"We have a good vaccine pipeline which we didn't have in 1918. We have anti-viral medications and we can actually tell by looking at the gene sequences of this that it's sensitive to most of the drugs we have in our armory," Worobey says.

Still, as Dr. Worobey says, anything can happen, so scientists have to be vigilant.

They can't pinpoint exactly when in its evolution a virus might become more virulent.

Plus, since flu viruses evolve, Worobey says this all will happen again.

"If nothing else this give us a kind of trial run in how to react," he says.

Flu season has just begun south of the equator, and Worobey and other scientists are watching it closely.

Asked how a new flu shot might look next fall, Worobey said it would have the standard three vaccines against influenza "A" and "B," and possibly a fourth, against the swine flu.

That swine flu vaccine is being developed right now.