Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs fight for who releases who's earning sheet data for 2009 first

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704675104575001342938...

Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. have taken their longtime cat-and-mouse game to a new level: jockeying over when to release their earnings reports for 2009.

The contest might look petty, but there is plenty at stake. Each is hoping to better control the public perceptions of their respective releases. Goldman is trying to deflect some attention from its bonus pool and highlight the differences between its highly profitable year and Morgan's lackluster results. Morgan, meanwhile, would prefer to avoid comparisons.

The story picks up in late December, when Morgan Stanley slated its earnings announcement for Jan. 21. A strange thing happened a few weeks later. Goldman announced its own plans to release its year-end earnings. The date: Jan. 21.

The move turned heads on Wall Street. Firms typically pick different days to report so analysts have more time to digest the data. In fact, Goldman and Morgan have reported on the same day only a handful of times during the past 10 years. Over the past few years, Goldman has typically reported a week or so before Morgan.

The change was no accident, according to people close to Goldman.

Analysts are predicting Morgan Stanley will post a profit of $526 million in the fourth quarter as it grapples with fallout from the mortgage crisis.

Goldman is having one of its best years in history. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expect the firm to post a profit nearly six times that of Morgan, or about $2.9 billion.

Goldman's date-change agitated people inside Morgan Stanley, according to people familiar with the matter. In a countermove, Morgan said on Jan. 8 it was bumping up its call one day, to Wednesday, Jan. 20.

Morgan Stanley said it moved the announcement not to distance itself from Goldman. Rather, it needed to accommodate the schedule of James Gorman, its incoming chief executive, a spokeswoman said, who wasn't available on Jan. 21.

Typically earnings calls are handling by the chief financial officer, but Mr. Gorman was keen to participate in his first call as chief executive, said the spokeswoman. Morgan wouldn't comment on Mr. Gorman's schedule on Jan. 21.

This isn't the first time Goldman has been caught in a hubbub over earnings announcements. Firms that are first out of the gate with strong earnings sometimes get a nice stock bump, as Goldman did in the first quarter of 2006, when its earnings beat analyst expectations by more than 50%.

A day later, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. reported its earnings, but in beating analyst expectations by just 15%, failed to move investors. Its stock actually sank that day.

Lehman changed its strategy the next quarter, moving its earnings date at the last minute so that it could report ahead of Goldman. The move was for naught, however. Lehman's stock sank anyway.

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