A New York Times Iowa primary projection, using figures collated from all the latest poll results and surveys, shows that Ron Paul is the clear favorite to win the crucial first Republican primary set to take place in just 13 days time.
“These forecasts are formulated from an average of recent surveys, with adjustments made to account for a polling firm’s accuracy, freshness of a poll and each candidate’s momentum,” reports the NY Times, noting that the method “improves accuracy” of the result.
The current figures show Ron Paul’s chance of winning the Iowa primary at 49 per cent, with Romney in second at 27 per cent and Gingrich in third at 15.5 per cent.
The numbers are collated from ten different polls that were conducted over the course of the last three weeks, including surveys undertaken by Rasmussen, PPP and InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Research. The results underscore how Paul has surged into first position over the last ten days, having been placed third at the start of the month.
The two most recent polls in Iowa have both found that Ron Paul is the current frontrunner in the crucial first primary state.
The results of a Iowa State University poll released todayreported Paul in the lead with 27.5 percent of 333 likely caucus-goers, with Gingrich in second at 25.3 percent and Romney in third with 17.5 percent.
A survey released Sunday night conducted by Public Policy Polling showed Ron Paul in first place ahead of Romney in second and Gingrich in third, whose campaign was described as “imploding”.
A recent CNN reportalso entertained the strong possibility that Paul could take Iowa, noting that his campaign was far more aggressive than Mitt Romney’s in that Paul’s campaign office was a “hive of activity,” whereas Romney’s was still closed at mid-morning.
In addition, another new poll conducted by CNN / ORC released todayfinds that Ron Paul is the strongest GOP candidate when it comes to a hypothetical head to head with Barack Obama, firmly debunking the establishment Republican talking point than a Ron Paul win would ensure Barack Obama’s re-election.
In a direct head to head with Obama, Paul does better than all of his GOP rivals in a wide and diverse range of population categories, including males; persons ages 18 to 34; persons under 50 years of age; persons earning less than $50k per year; persons who have attended college; crossover Democrats; self-identified liberals; self-described moderates; residents of the Northeast and Midwest geographic regions; and those residing in urban areas.
