“Always Correct” Election Predictor Has Donald Trump Defeating Sickly Hillary 51% to 48% Jim Hoft Aug 13th, 2016 5:32 pm Leave a Comment Alan Abramowitz’s “Crystal Ball” model has Trump defeating sickly Hillary Clinton 51% to 48%. trump green bay The model gives Trump a 66% chance of winning the election this year. The Examiner reported: Republican Donald Trump should win the presidency by a slim margin according to a model that has accurately predicted the popular vote since 1988. Using several standards to make his prediction, Alan Abramowitz’s “Time for Change” model done for the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics “Crystal Ball” shows Trump winning 51.4 percent to 48.6 percent for Hillary Clinton.