Calculated Mean Global Temperatures 1610-2012
Guest post by Dan Pangburn
Introduction
This monograph is a clarification and further refinement of Reference 10 which also considers only average global temperature. It does not discuss weather, which is a complex study of energy moving about the planet. It does not even address local climate, which includes precipitation. It does, however, consider the issue of Global Warming and the mistaken perception that human activity has a significant influence on it.
The word ‘trend’ is used here for measured temperatures in two different contexts. To differentiate, α-trend applies to averaging-out the uncertainties in reported average global temperature measurements to produce the average global temperature oscillation resulting from the net ocean surface oscillation. The term β-trend applies to averaging-out the average global temperature oscillation to produce the slower average temperature change of the planet which is associated with change to the temperature of the bulk volume of the water involved.
The first paper to suggest the hypothesis that the sunspot number time-integral is a proxy for a substantial driver of average global temperature change was made public 6/1/2009. The discovery started with application of the first law of thermodynamics, conservation of energy, and the hypothesis that the energy acquired, above or below breakeven (appropriately accounting for energy radiated from the planet), is proportional to the time-integral of sunspot numbers. The derived equation revealed a rapid and sustained global energy rise starting in about 1941. The average global temperature anomaly change β-trend is proportional to global energy change.
Measured temperature anomaly α-trends oscillate above and below the temperature anomaly trend calculated using only the sunspot number time-integral. The existence of ocean oscillations, especially the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, led to the perception that there must be an effective net surface temperature oscillation with all named and unnamed ocean oscillations as participants. Plots of measured average global temperatures indicate that the net surface temperature oscillation must have a period of 64 years with the most recent maximum in 2005.
Introduction
This monograph is a clarification and further refinement of Reference 10 which also considers only average global temperature. It does not discuss weather, which is a complex study of energy moving about the planet. It does not even address local climate, which includes precipitation. It does, however, consider the issue of Global Warming and the mistaken perception that human activity has a significant influence on it.
The word ‘trend’ is used here for measured temperatures in two different contexts. To differentiate, α-trend applies to averaging-out the uncertainties in reported average global temperature measurements to produce the average global temperature oscillation resulting from the net ocean surface oscillation. The term β-trend applies to averaging-out the average global temperature oscillation to produce the slower average temperature change of the planet which is associated with change to the temperature of the bulk volume of the water involved.
The first paper to suggest the hypothesis that the sunspot number time-integral is a proxy for a substantial driver of average global temperature change was made public 6/1/2009. The discovery started with application of the first law of thermodynamics, conservation of energy, and the hypothesis that the energy acquired, above or below breakeven (appropriately accounting for energy radiated from the planet), is proportional to the time-integral of sunspot numbers. The derived equation revealed a rapid and sustained global energy rise starting in about 1941. The average global temperature anomaly change β-trend is proportional to global energy change.
Measured temperature anomaly α-trends oscillate above and below the temperature anomaly trend calculated using only the sunspot number time-integral. The existence of ocean oscillations, especially the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, led to the perception that there must be an effective net surface temperature oscillation with all named and unnamed ocean oscillations as participants. Plots of measured average global temperatures indicate that the net surface temperature oscillation must have a period of 64 years with the most recent maximum in 2005.
Combination of the effects results in the effect of the ocean surface temperature oscillation (α-trend) decline 1941-1973 being slightly stronger than the effect of the rapid rise from sunspots (β-trend) resulting in a slight decline of the trend of reported average global temperatures. The steep rise 1973-2005 occurred because the effects added. A high coefficient of determination, R2, demonstrates that the hypothesis is true.
Several refinements to this work slightly improved the accuracy and led to the equations and figures in this paper.
Prior work
Several refinements to this work slightly improved the accuracy and led to the equations and figures in this paper.
Prior work
