Greek Ouzo Crisis Escalates Into Global Margin Call As Confidence Ebbs

For the third time in 18 months the global financial system risks spinning out of control unless political leaders take immediate and radical action.

A driver stands near parked trucks on the road leading to the Kulata border crossing between Bulgaria and Greece. The roadblock was set up by farmes protesting higher taxes.
A driver stands near parked trucks on the road leading to the Kulata border crossing between Bulgaria and Greece. The roadblock was set up by farmers protesting higher taxes.

Flow data shows an abrupt withdrawal of German and Asian capital from Club Med debt markets. The EU's refusal to offer Greece anything beyond stern words and a one-month deadline for harsher austerity – while admirable in one sense – is to misjudge how fast confidence is ebbing. Greece's drama has already metastasised into a wider systemic crisis. The world risks a replay of the Lehman collapse if this runs unchecked, this time involving sovereign dominoes.

Barclays Capital says the net external liabilities of Greece are 87pc of GDP, or €208bn (£182bn). Spain is worse at 91pc (€950bn), and Portugal worse yet at 108pc (€177bn); Ireland is 68pc (€123bn), Italy is 23pc, (€347bn). Add East Europe's bubble and foreign debts top €2 trillion.

The scale matches America's sub-prime/Alt-A adventure and assorted CDOs and SIVS of the Greenspan fling. The parallels are closer than Europe cares to admit. Just as Benelux funds and German Landesbanken bought subprime debt for high yield with AAA gloss, they bought Spanish Cedulas because these too had a safe gloss – even though Spain's property boom broke world records. They thought EMU had eliminated risk: it merely switched exchange risk into credit risk.

A fat chunk of Club Med debt has to be rolled over soon. Capital Economics said the share of state debt maturing this year is even higher in Spain (17pc) than in Greece (12pc), though Spain's Achilles' Heel is mortgage debt.

The risk is the EMU version of Mexico's Tequila crisis or Asia's crisis in 1998. This Ouzo crisis is coming to a head just as tougher bank rules cause German lenders to restrict loans, and it touches on the most neuralgic issue of our day: that governments themselves are running low. Britain, France, Japan, and the US are all vulnerable. All must retrench. The great "reflation trade" of 2009 is over.

Far from containing the crisis, Europe's response recalls the Lehman/AIG events of 2008 when Brussels sat frozen, and Germany dragged its feet. On that occasion France took charge, in the nick of time.

Today's events will not wait. The rocketing cost of (CDS) default insurance on Iberian debt speaks for itself. Lisbon retreated from a €500m bond issue last week, even before the government lost a crucial finance vote. Can Athens raise money at all on viable terms?

There are echoes of early 2009 when East Europe blew up, with contagion hitting global bourses, commodities, and iTraxx credit indices. That episode was halted by the G20 deal to triple the IMF's fire-fighting fund to $750bn. The odd twist today is that Greece cannot turn to the IMF because that offends EMU pride, yet no other help is on offer because the EU has no fiscal authority. Greece lies prostrate between two stools.

Both the City and Brussels seem certain that Europe will conjure a rescue, crossing the Rubicon towards fiscal federalism and a debt union. The emergency aid clause of Article 122 is on everybody's lips. Insiders talk of a "Eurobond".

On balance, such a rescue is likely. Yet leaving aside whether North Europe can afford to guarantee Club Med debt – or whether a bail-out pollutes more countries, as HBOS polluted Lloyds – there is one overwhelming fact missing from the debate: Germany has not endorsed any such rescue.

Jurgen Stark, Germany's champion at the European Central Bank, said markets are "deluding themselves" if they think others will pay to save Greece. He shot down Article 122, saying Athens was responsible for its own mess.

Bundesbank chief Axel Weber said it would be "politically impossible" to ask taxpayers to bail out a profligate state. Both the finance and economy ministers have forsworn a rescue. Die Welt has called for Greek withdrawal from the euro.

I cannot judge how much is brinkmanship, pressure to make Club Med sweat. But I remember vividly lunching with the British prime minister's economic adviser in August 1992 and being told that Germany would soon rescue sterling in the Exchange Rate Mechanism by cutting rates. Such was the self-deception of the British elite. Anybody following German politics – such as George Soros– knew it was nonsense.

Germany is harder to read today. The euro is a giant step beyond the ERM. Yet there are powerful counter-currents. Germany's constitutional court issued a crushing put-down of EU pretensions last June, ruling that the sovereign states are "Masters of the Treaties" and that EU bodies lack democratic legitimacy.

So if you are betting that Germany must forever more efface itself for the European Project, be careful. Berlin hawks might prefer to lance the Club Med boil sooner rather than later.

Source: Telegraph.co.uk
By: Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

Views: 52

Comment

You need to be a member of 12160 Social Network to add comments!

Join 12160 Social Network

"Destroying the New World Order"

TOP CONTENT THIS WEEK

THANK YOU FOR SUPPORTING THE SITE!

mobile page

12160.info/m

12160 Administrators

 

Latest Activity

Doc Vega posted blog posts
yesterday
Doc Vega commented on Doc Vega's blog post Plausible Explanation Behind Recent Cryptid Sightings in the Wild!
"cheeki kea I was wrong Emperor Penguins are big and powerful but still alive but this,  A size…"
yesterday
Doc Vega commented on Doc Vega's blog post Plausible Explanation Behind Recent Cryptid Sightings in the Wild!
"Cheeki kea here's another that they say there have been modern sightings of!  The name of…"
yesterday
Doc Vega commented on Doc Vega's blog post Plausible Explanation Behind Recent Cryptid Sightings in the Wild!
"cheeki kea, did you ever hear of the giant Imperial Penguins? They were about 6 feet tall and could…"
yesterday
Doc Vega commented on Doc Vega's blog post Plausible Explanation Behind Recent Cryptid Sightings in the Wild!
"cheeki kea I do not think these giant two legged birds would need to have a bad attitude as long as…"
yesterday
Olivia Brooks updated their profile
Tuesday
John Miller was featured
Tuesday
tjdavis's 2 blog posts were featured
Tuesday
Zfort Group's blog post was featured
Tuesday
Doc Vega's 6 blog posts were featured
Tuesday
Burbia commented on tjdavis's video
Thumbnail

“What’s His Motive?” - Inside The Mind of George Soros

"Trump calls for George Soros and son to face federal…"
Tuesday
Burbia commented on tjdavis's photo
Tuesday
Profile IconSeeta Sathe and Olivia Brooks joined 12160 Social Network
Tuesday
tjdavis posted a video

Mossad, Terrifying CIA Technology, Blackwater & The Most Secret CIA Unit | John Kiriakou

John Kiriakou served 15 years in the CIA as a Case Officer (Spy) and as CIA's Head of Counterterrorism Operations in Pakistan where he lead the raid that cap...
Monday
tjdavis posted a photo
Monday
tjdavis posted a video

A Critique of the Tavistock Institute - The Mother Of All Conspiracy Theories

An examination of the Tavistock Institute, a theory which seeks to explain how Western societies have been brainwashed by a cabal of social scientists and th...
Sunday
tjdavis posted a video

“What’s His Motive?” - Inside The Mind of George Soros

In this short clip, Patrick Bet-David, Sebastian Gorka Adam Sosnick, and Tom Ellsworth George Soros and what motivates him to do the things he does. FaceTime...
Aug 27
Doc Vega posted blog posts
Aug 27
cheeki kea favorited Bob of the Family Renner's photo
Aug 26
cheeki kea commented on Doc Vega's blog post Plausible Explanation Behind Recent Cryptid Sightings in the Wild!
"If you're ever out there Doc V and notice giant two legged birds roaming the wilderness be…"
Aug 26

© 2025   Created by truth.   Powered by

Badges  |  Report an Issue  |  Terms of Service

content and site copyright 12160.info 2007-2019 - all rights reserved. unless otherwise noted