Part 2 BorderlandBeat-Z40: The aftermath of Miguel Treviño's Arrest and Looking at the Contenders

Treviño Clan’s “Años Horribles” 2012-2013

In the year of 2012 and the 7 months of 2013 the Treviño family crisis list includes:

Miguel Angel Treviño Morales, 40, leader of the Zetas, was captured

José Treviño Morales, 46 (a naturalized U.S. citizen) was convicted in a Zetas related money laundering/horseracing scheme. He is awaiting sentencing. (with wife and daughter in the photo above)

Zulema Treviño, 39, wife of José also a naturalized U.S. citizen, pleaded guilty to money laundering conspiracy in March, she is awaiting sentencing, her whereabouts unknown.

Alexandra García Treviño, daughter of José and Zulema, pleaded guilty to having knowledge of a felony. She’s believed to be living in California with her military husband.

Omar Treviño Morales, indicted in the U.S., has not been arrested.

Alejandro Treviño Chávez nephew of Miguel was shot by forces in Piedras Negras Coahuila in October 2012 sparking a "Nephew for a Nephew" retaliation resulting in the death of Eduardo Lalo Moreira, nephew of the governor of Coahuila.

Juan Francisco Treviño Chavez “El Quico” (above though it may be mislabeled) son of Juan senior, arrested in Monterrey in June 2012. Quico escaped from a Nuevo Laredo prison in 2010.

The future of Los Zetas

The feared leader went down without a shot. That does not surprise this reporter. He is a calculating criminal and leader. Surrender equates to; opportunity.

Powerful cartels are big business. Sinaloa at the top and Zetas are in scores of countries around the globe. They plan for every eventuality, so it is way too soon to write the Zetas epitaph. That said, even the best laid plans fall apart by the unplanned circumstances, or rogue players.

Perhaps a serendipitous advantage, just before and directly after the death of premier leader of the Zetas Heriberto Lazcano Lazcano in October 2012,infighting had resulted in two known splits within the group, those staying with the cartel were deemed as being faithful to 40. Another fracture is possible, but more so if 40’s brother Omar (Z42) is not named the heir to leadership. Or an unknown factor such as a power play by one or more of the members to overthrow the Treviño hold on the cartel.

Splits within groups are deadly to the organization, case in point is CDG. When I moved to Mexico, CDG was arguably the most powerful cartel, and the oldest, having begun as smuggling alcohol to the US during the prohibition. Although they are experiencing a strengthening, they had been weaken through several events; Osiels arrest, death of key players such as Tony Tormenta, inept leadership, the split with Zetas, and a division within the organization. Had they not been so powerful before those events, they would not exist today.

Another factor in their survival can be attributed to the alliance with CDS (Sinaloa), teaming against the Zetas. CDS made the alliance to attain a path in the northeast. It is no secret Chapo has wanted the NE border plazas and none more than the lucrative Nuevo Laredo Plaza, if CDS acquires the Nuevo Laredo plaza, they will control every major plaza along the frontera. . Many felt if the Zetas were eliminated in the NE region, at that time CDS would break ties with CDG and control the NE.

If Omar (42) gains premier leadership, it is likely that 40 will govern the organization from behind bars. As far as franchising plazas or “leasing” for a price the use of routes, similar to CAF in Tijuana, that is also a possibility, it would be smart of Zetas to concede their position of black and white and attempt agreements.

As Osiel did, until extradited to the US, it will be probable that 40 would continue in control Zetas behind bars .

It was disturbing to see that he was taken into custody sans handcuffs. It could be the style of Mexico’s new president Enrique Peña, or it could be an indication of a lax treatment that lies ahead for the capo once he is incarcerated. Capos have a comparative luxurious life behind bars. Two room cells with kitchens, electronics, liquor, and just about any amenity they want.

The other “opportunity” for the fallen leader is escape. Though the days of Chapo’s laundry basket escape are said to be a thing of the past, Zetas are known for daring escapes, involving scores of inmates, and in Piedras Negras an escape of over 100 inmates were facilitated by a tunnel. However, how feasible that would be in the more secure federal prison system remains to be seen. Money has been known to buy freedom, not a likely scenario, but not impossibility.

When Osiel was apprehended, Zeta enforcer “Mamito”, the former GAFE member, headed an extravagant, but failed attempt to free the incarcerated leader. The ambitious plan used air support of three helicopters and over 60 Zetas as the group moved in on maximum security prison 'El Altiplano'.

The best course would be if Mexico would allow 40 to be extradited to the United States. Given the strained US relationship with the new administration of EPN, that is unlikely. EPN has detached his administration from US agencies and cutoff the previous privileges enjoyed by US agencies under the Calderon administration, such as open access to information and data.

It would not be surprising to learn the US provided the information to the Mexican Navy to execute the capture of 40. The Mexican Navy is the sole hold out in the sea of Mexican agencies having cut off open relationships with the US. The Mexican Navy is the most respected Mexican agency, highly regarded by US agencies.

The US recently was instrumental in the capture of the father in law of Chapo Guzman. The capture was called a “gift” from the DEA to EPN. Some think the capture of Z40 was another gift from the US. Mexican officials ignored the direct question when proposed in the press conference conducted to announce the capture.

Others are in the belief that the capture was perhaps a gift from the EPN administration to Chapo Guzman.

Top contenders for new leader of Zetas

Appointing 42 as the Zetas new leader would likely be the most desirable scenario for the fallen leader. The bond of trust between the brothers is paramount to the organization continuing, at least for now, under the direction of Miguel Treviño behind bars.

However the list of possible replacement can be shortened to four standouts.

Omar Treviño Morales " Z-42 ", brother and strongman" Z-40 ", who is identifies by Mexican agencies by being responsible for the same degree of violence as his brother Miguel. People on the ground in Coahuila, where Omar resides, consider him a person with potential of even greater violence and brutality.

Maxiley Barahona Nadales, “El Contador” or “El Maxiley”, if it’s a leader with the potential for high brutality that gets the nod, this is the Zeta. The Mexican agency PGR Labels him as “Extremely Dangerous”. He is the second in line in the Zeta hierarchy, if Omar is not the leader, it will be this man.

He is in charge of the plazas of Veracruz, Tabasco and Chiapas. Under his direction a mass of murders, and kidnappings have been conducted in the regions that he is responsible for. He is also suspected of detonating grenades at the offices of the Attorney General Justice of the state of Chiapas .

Román Ricardo Palomo Rincones, “El Coyote”, This Zeta is one of the leaders in charge of the kidnappings and massacres of Central American migrants, including those in the municipality of San Fernando, Tamaulipas.

The PGR identifies him as being involved in the murder of 145 people who were abducted when" traveling on 'Omnibus de Mexico' and 'Commercial Orient' bus lines, travelling north from various states to Tamaulipas, through the city of San Fernando, to Reynosa, from there hoping to cross into the US.

Sergio Ricardo Basurto Peña “el Grande “, The Trusted and close friend of Miguel Treviño is in control of the narcotiendas, in Nuevo Laredo, Tamaulipas. This means he is also responsible for authoring and ordering the killings in the city. Since Lazca's death, he has been awarded greater responsibility to include the major port city of Coatzacoalcos, Veracruz.

There are other contenders, but these are known to be at the top, trusted and respected by Miguel Treviño, making it likely one or more will be appointed to fill the position vacated by the arrest of 40.

UPDATE: reports are surfacing that Z42 has been named as the premier leader of the Zetas. Further, the three men named above as possible contenders, have been appointed 42's new lieutenants, meaning they are next in succession should Omar be killed or arrested in this order of succession; Román Ricardo Palomo Corners, "El Coyote", Maxiles Barahona, "El Contador", Peña and Sergio Ricardo Basurto, "El Grande".

There is no way to confirm these reports but they are highly probable.

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