Is Debra Medina the next Scott Brown?
Nobody -- well, hardly anybody outside perhaps the Medina household -- expects the small business owner and anti-Washington crusader to be the next governor of Texas. Heck, until recently she wasn’t even much of a factor in the shoot-'em-up between the two leviathans of Lone Star politics, Gov. Rick Perry and Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison.
Then again, up until a couple of weeks out, nobody thought Brown -- a little-known state senator and ex-Cosmo model -- stood much chance of swiping the Massachusetts Senate seat held for almost a half century by the late Edward M. Kennedy. That said, a poll out Tuesday is raising eyebrows all over Texas.
The survey by Public Policy Polling showed Perry leading the GOP field with 39%, followed by Hutchison at 28% and Medina -- a favorite of the Tea Party crowd -- at 24%.
More significant, among self-identified conservatives -- those most likely to turn out in the March 2 primary -- Perry had 42% support to Medina’s 25% and Hutchison’s 23%.
Given the survey’s 4.8% margin of error, Hutchison, long considered the most popular politician in Texas, is effectively tied with the little-known, meagerly funded Medina.
(How meagerly? As of Tuesday, she had raised less than $600,000, a pittance compared to the $50 million Perry and Hutchison are expected to spend between them.)
Of course, no poll can be taken as gospel. The survey, conducted after last month’s second and final GOP gubernatorial debate, had a fairly small sample: 423 likely Republican voters.
Still, it seems...
to bear out what many political pros are saying: Hutchison is struggling, Medina is surging and Perry -- who doesn’t exactly blow the barn doors off in terms of popularity -- seems a lot better positioned than most would have imagined a few months ago. Thanks to Medina, the GOP contest seems destined for an April run-off between the two top finishers.
The big question, for the moment at least, is whether Perry will face Hutchison or Medina -- something that enters Scott Brown territory in terms of who-wudda-thunk-it. Clearly, Medina is benefiting from the anti-incumbent anger that is burning, prairie-fire-like, across the country. But she has also gained from a pair of solid debate performances; some declared Medina the winner after the first session in mid-January.
“She was the one who came across, to judge from polls and reaction afterward, as more forthright, better prepared, quite calm and confident,” said Bruce Buchanan, a University of Texas political scientist and longtime student of state politics. “She was seemingly more gubernatorial than her opponents in some respects.”
Medina enjoyed a surge in contributions after her strong showing, followed by another after the second debate. The question is whether she can sustain the momentum, lacking a prominent statewide platform (there are no more debates scheduled) or the money for a serious advertising campaign. (Turn on the TV and just try to avoid a Perry or Hutchison spot.)
Medina has also enjoyed the luxury of facing little scrutiny on issues. (How high would the state sales tax have to go if Texas eliminates its property tax, as Medina advocates?) That probably won’t last if she is seen as a serious contender.
Already, Medina has been forced to explain away a comment she made -- "stepping off into secession may in fact be a bloody war" -- in support of states’ rights at a rally last year on the Capitol steps. (Asked about her remark during the second debate, Medina said she opposes Texas’ secession from the union, something Perry hinted at last year in his own nod to the Tea Party folks.)
Still, Medina, the former chairwoman of the Wharton County GOP, has already achieved far more than anyone expected of her campaign. Failing a successful run for governor, many see her as well positioned to replace her congressman, Ron Paul, whenever he steps down. Paul is one of Medina’s key supporters.
-- Mark Z. Barabak
Source: Los Angeles Times
Photo: Medina. Credit: Associated Press.
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Source: POLITICO.COM
- Texas GOP gubernatorial candidates Gov. Rick Perry, Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchinson and Debra Medina debate at the WFAA Channel 8 studios in Dallas in January. Photo: AP
Debra Medina is closing on Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison in Texas’s Republican gubernatorial primary, increasing the odds the race led by Gov. Rick Perry will be thrown into a runoff.
According to a survey out Tuesday by Public Policy Polling, Medina, a nurse who’s now a businesswoman, had the support of 24 percent of likely Republican primary voters, trailing the three-term senator by only 4 percentage points. Perry, who leads Hutchison by double-digits in several polls, got 39 percent in the latest survey.
If no candidate gets more than 50 percent of the vote in the March 2 primary, the top two finishers will compete in a runoff on April 13.
The poll of 423 likely Republican voters found Medina particularly strong among those angry at Washington. Among the third of voters in the poll who said they disapproved of Washington, Medina topped Perry, 37 percent to 32 percent.
Both Perry and Hutchison had approval ratings of at least 50 percent in the poll, making Medina’s surge even more surprising.
“The big question for Debra Medina is whether there’re enough unhappy voters out there for her to get into a runoff with Rick Perry,” said Dean Debnam, president of Public Policy Polling. “That would rank up there with the results of the Massachusetts Senate election as an early shocker in the 2010 political season.”
The poll has a margin of error of 4.8 percentage points.
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