Scientists Convicted of Not Predicting Earthquake

The infamous L'Aquila earthquake trial is over, and it turns out that in Italy you can be convicted of manslaughter for not predicting an earthquake:

Six Italian scientists and an ex-government official have been sentenced to six years in prison over the 2009 deadly earthquake in L'Aquila. A regional court found them guilty of multiple manslaughter.

Prosecutors said the defendants gave a falsely reassuring statement before the quake, while the defence maintained there was no way to predict major quakes. It took Judge Marco Billi slightly more than four hours to reach the verdict in the trial, which had begun in September 2011.

As bad as this sounds, it's actually even worse. Prior to the L'Aquila quake, there had been a series of small tremors, prompting a local lab technician to issue several incorrect predictions of a large earthquake on Italian television. Residents were nervous, so a committee of seismologists was convened to assess the risk of a bigger quake. Here's what they concluded:

The minutes of the 31 March meeting [] reveal that at no point did any of the scientists say that there was "no danger" of a big quake. "A major earthquake in the area is unlikely but cannot be ruled out," Boschi said. Selvaggi is quoted as saying that "in recent times some recent earthquakes have been preceded by minor shocks days or weeks beforehand, but on the other hand many seismic swarms did not result in a major event". Eva added that "because L'Aquila is in a high-risk zone it is impossible to say with certainty that there will be no large earthquake". Summing up the meeting, Barberi said, "there is no reason to believe that a swarm of minor events is a sure predictor of a major shock". All the participants agreed that buildings in the area should be monitored urgently, to assess their capacity to sustain a major shock.

So what's the conviction based on? This:

The prosecution has focused on a statement made at the press conference by accused committee member Bernardo De Bernardinis, who was then deputy technical head of Italy's Civil Protection Agency. "The scientific community tells me there is no danger," he said at the time, "because there is an ongoing discharge of energy. The situation looks favourable."

Many seismologists — including one of the accused, Enzo Boschi, president of the National Institute of Geophysics and Vulcanology in Rome — have since criticized the statement as scientifically unfounded. The statement does not appear in the minutes of the committee meeting itself, and the accused seismologists say they cannot be blamed for it. De Bernardinis's advocate insists that his client merely summarized what the scientists had told him. The prosecutor claims that because none of the other committee members immediately corrected De Bernardinis, they are all equally culpable.

Even if you think De Bernardinis was culpable in some way, it's beyond belief that six scientists were convicted merely for not immediately disagreeing with him. This is a sad day in Italian justice, and it's going to be a long time before any qualified scientist is willing to say anything ever again about earthquake safety.

http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2012/10/scientists-convicted-...

Views: 163

Comment

You need to be a member of 12160 Social Network to add comments!

Join 12160 Social Network

Comment by Central Scrutinizer on October 24, 2012 at 12:10am

birthing may not be done yet, could be triplets ;)

Comment by Central Scrutinizer on October 23, 2012 at 11:21pm

"Destroying the New World Order"

TOP CONTENT THIS WEEK

THANK YOU FOR SUPPORTING THE SITE!

mobile page

12160.info/m

12160 Administrators

 

Latest Activity

Doc Vega commented on Doc Vega's blog post Was a Planned Civil War Averted?
"cheeki kea, you are spot on. The old guard is about to collapse! "
9 hours ago
Doc Vega commented on Doc Vega's blog post Alligator Creek and a Japanese Massacre
"cheeki kea, the Japanese thought they could expand their empire and exact enough damage on the US…"
9 hours ago
Michelle Reichert favorited Burbia's video
22 hours ago
cheeki kea posted a video

NEW DOCUMENTARY - Dissent Into Madness

TRANSCRIPT AND SOURCES: https://www.corbettreport.com/dissent-into-madness/What if the delusions of the dissidents are in fact real? What if their paranoid f...
yesterday
cheeki kea commented on Doc Vega's blog post Alligator Creek and a Japanese Massacre
"Japan served themselves up no favours by inching out into the South Pacific as they soon found out.…"
yesterday
cheeki kea commented on Doc Vega's blog post Was a Planned Civil War Averted?
"Their plans did not work out because we are the news now, and the old news is the enemy. "
yesterday
Doc Vega posted a blog post

Alligator Creek and a Japanese Massacre

The year is 1942 just a few months after the Pearl Harbor disaster. Despite losses suffered by the…See More
yesterday
Doc Vega commented on Burbia's video
Thumbnail

CHARLIE KIRK WAS CNP! JOSH REEVES 9-11-25

"With all due respect this guy comes off as a drunken asshole and he didn't even  know who…"
Monday
Doc Vega posted a blog post

Was a Planned Civil War Averted?

We are living in sadly historic times where good and evil are in battle all the time. Not that this…See More
Sunday
Sandy posted a photo
Sunday
Less Prone posted a video

President Trump addresses U.N. General Assembly - FULL SPEECH

President Donald Trump speaks at the United Nations General Assembly in New York City.Full video here: https://www.c-span.org/event/white-house-event/preside...
Sunday
Burbia posted a video

2 MIN AGO: Western Provinces MAJOR New WEXIT Announcement - Canada EXPLODES!

In a stunning turn of events, Western provinces just made a major new WEXIT announcement — and it’s shaking the foundations of Canadian unity. Is Western sep...
Saturday
Doc Vega posted a blog post

How You Provoke a Civil War

In the world of counter intelligence which is simply one aspect of many pertaining to asymmetrical…See More
Friday
Burbia commented on Burbia's video
Thumbnail

CHARLIE KIRK WAS CNP! JOSH REEVES 9-11-25

"I don't follow as much with Josh Reeves than I use to. He seems to be a documentary producing…"
Sep 25
Burbia posted a video

CHARLIE KIRK WAS CNP! JOSH REEVES 9-11-25

DONATE-paypal-dayglow76@yahoo.comCashapp-reevesradioVenmo-Josh-Reeves-61FILMS AND AUDIOBOOKS DOWNLOAD STORE-https://store.payloadz.com/results/242828-josh-re...
Sep 25
Doc Vega posted blog posts
Sep 25
tjdavis posted a video

CHARLIE KIRK VIDEO THAT KEEPS GETTING REMOVED OFF OF SEVERAL PLATFORMS

I had not planned to share this publicly, but I believe Advar, who spoke with Charlie Kirk while I was very ill, would have wanted me to. After my interview ...
Sep 25
pohonemas33 team commented on Chris of the family Masters's photo
Thumbnail

Gold-Coast-Message

"untuk bermain slot, kamu cukup kunjungi situs kacang99 pasti langsung gacor"
Sep 24
Doc Vega posted blog posts
Sep 24
Burbia posted a blog post

Former President Trump?

When was this article written? It is attributed to Victor Davis Hanson. He is a Fellow at Hoover…See More
Sep 22

© 2025   Created by truth.   Powered by

Badges  |  Report an Issue  |  Terms of Service

content and site copyright 12160.info 2007-2019 - all rights reserved. unless otherwise noted