US Military Warns of Massive Oil Shortages by 2015

Here we go again - more excuses to raise the price of gas and invade another country.

US military warns oil output may dip causing massive shortages by 2015



• Shortfall could reach 10m barrels a day, report says
• Cost of crude oil is predicted to top $100 a barrel

Terry Macalister

guardian.co.uk, Sunday 11 April 2010 18.47 BST



Total oil refinery

Surplus oil production capacity could disappear by 2012 a report from US Joint Forces Command, says.
Photograph: Katja Buchholz/Getty Images


The US military has warned that
surplus from guardian.co.uk on Oil"">oil production capacity could disappear
within two years and there could be serious shortages by 2015 with a
significant economic and political impact.

The energy crisis outlined in a Joint Operating Environment report from the US Joint
Forces Command, comes as the price of petrol in Britain reaches record
levels and the cost of crude is predicted to soon top $100 a barrel.

"By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as
early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 million
barrels per day," says the report, which has a foreword by a senior
commander, General James N Mattis.

It adds: "While it is difficult to predict precisely what economic, political, and strategic effects
such a shortfall might produce, it surely would reduce the prospects for
growth in both the developing and developed worlds. Such an economic
slowdown would exacerbate other unresolved tensions, push fragile and
failing states further down the path toward collapse, and perhaps have
serious economic impact on both guardian.co.uk on China"">China and guardian.co.uk on India"">India."

The US military says its views cannot be taken as US government policy but admits they are meant
to provide the Joint Forces with "an intellectual foundation upon which
we will construct the concept to guide out future force developments."

The warning is the latest in a series from around the world that has turned
peak oil – the moment when demand exceeds supply – from a distant
threat to a more immediate risk.

The Wicks Review on UK energy policy published last summer effectively dismissed fears but Lord Hunt, oil"">the British energy minister, met concerned industrialists two weeks
ago
in a sign that it is rapidly changing its mind on the
seriousness of the issue.

The Paris-based International Energy Agency remains confident that there is no short-term risk of oil
shortages but privately some senior officials have admitted there is
considerable disagreement internally about this upbeat stance.

Future fuel supplies are of acute importance to the US army because it is
believed to be the biggest single user of petrol in the world. guardian.co.uk on BP"">BP chief executive, Tony Hayward, said
recently that there was little chance of crude from the carbon-heavy
Canadian tar sands being banned in America because the US military like
to have local supplies rather than rely on the politically unstable
Middle East.

But there are signs that the US Department of Energy might also be changing its stance on peak oil. In a recent interview
with French newspaper, Le Monde, Glen Sweetnam
, main oil adviser to
the Obama administration, admitted that "a chance exists that we may
experience a decline" of world liquid fuels production between 2011 and
2015 if the investment was not forthcoming.

Lionel Badal, a post-graduate student at Kings College, London, who has been researching
peak oil theories, said the review by the American military moves the
debate on.

"It's surprising to see that the US Army, unlike the US Department of Energy, publicly warns of major oil shortages in the
near-term. Now it could be interesting to know on which study the
information is based on," he said.

"The Energy Information Administration (of the department of energy) has been saying for years
that Peak Oil was "decades away". In light of the report from the US
Joint Forces Command, is the EIA still confident of its previous highly
optimistic conclusions?"

The Joint Operating Environment report paints a bleak picture of what can happen on occasions when there is
serious economic upheaval. "One should not forget that the Great
Depression spawned a number of totalitarian regimes that sought economic
prosperity for their nations by ruthless conquest," it points out.


http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/apr/11/peak-oil-production-...

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Comment by Public Agent 4040 on April 14, 2010 at 7:00pm
P.S. I am a refinery gas tester and hygiene monitoring technician, I can tell you that the oil we get today has far more mercury and other nasties than ever before. There is definately a shortage of the good oil, there is no doubt about that. Much of the oil out there is more suitable for diesel not petrol.
Comment by Public Agent 4040 on April 14, 2010 at 6:56pm
Very interesting Nikki explains a few things here in Australia. I work in the oil industry and Chevron is considering dropping Caltex. Presentally they are finding it very difficult to compete with the ASIA refineries. Consider this, we are a nation of about 22 million and our biggest refinery processes 75,000 barrels of oil a day. There are several ASIA refineries that process a million barrels a day. This level of processing did not exist 10 years ago. Fortunately we have a lot of natural gas trapped in the coal seams deep in the earth. By the end of 2012 there will be over 3000 rigs in the outback of Queensland, Australia. Natural gas much better than coal or oil as a fuel source. Unfortunately much of it goes to feed China's industry.
Comment by Nikki on April 13, 2010 at 8:43pm
Plentiful oil is not profitable so they keep the peak oil myth alive while we are asked to sacrifice. We have heard this so many times you would think people would have caught on to this scam by now. They will use this as an excuse to raise the price of gas and everything else as well.
Comment by Tara on April 13, 2010 at 7:05pm
Yeah, I would never believe this nonsense about oil shortages, more like artificial scarcity fear mongering so they have their excuse to manipulate oil prices and we all would be feeling it at the pump for sure. Instead of "kick em when their up, kick em when their down," it's more like kick em when their down, kick em when their down. Don't ya love being kicked?

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