S&P Explains Why The “$2 Trillion Error” Is Irrelevant

S&P Explains Why The “$2 Trillion Error” Is Irrelevant

 

Full S&P note:

Standard & Poor’s Clarifies Assumption Used On Discretionary Spending Growth

 

New York, Aug. 6, 2011. In response to questions, Standard & Poor’s today said that the ratings decision to lower the long-term rating to AA+ from AAA was not affected by the change of assumptions regarding the pace of discretionary spending growth. In the near term horizon to 2015, the U.S. net general government debt is projected to be $14.5 trillion (79% of 2015 GDP) versus $14.7 trillion (81% of 2015 GDP) with the initial assumption.

 

We used the Alternative Fiscal Scenario of the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO), which includes an assumption that government discretionary appropriations will grow at the same rate as nominal GDP. In further discussions between Standard & Poor’s and Treasury, we determined that the CBO’s Baseline Scenario, which assumes discretionary appropriations grow at a lower rate, would be more consistent with CBO assessment of the savings set out by the Budget Control Act of 2011.

 

Our ratings are determined primarily using a 3-5 year time horizon.

 

In the near term horizon, by 2015, the U.S. net general government debt with the new assumptions were projected to be $14.5 trillion (79% of 2015 GDP) versus $14.7 trillion (81% of 2015 GDP) with the initial assumption – a difference of $345 billion.

 

In taking a longer term horizon of 10 years, the U.S. net general government debt level with the current assumptions would be $20.1 trillion (85% of 2021 GDP). With the original assumptions, the debt level was projected to be $22.1 trillion (93% of 2021 GDP).

 

The primary focus remained on the current level of debt, the trajectory of debt as a share of the economy, and the lack of apparent willingness of elected officials as a group to deal with the U.S. medium term fiscal outlook. None of these key factors was meaningfully affected by the assumption revisions to the assumed growth of discretionary outlays and thus had no impact on the rating decision.

Views: 34

Comment

You need to be a member of 12160 Social Network to add comments!

Join 12160 Social Network

Comment by Maria De Wind on August 8, 2011 at 11:10am

US markets fall sharply after S&P downgrade Stocks fall on Wall...

 

MARKET IS OPEN
(Will close in 6 hrs. 59 mins.)
 
   

Metals

Date

Time
(EST)

Bid

Ask

Change

Low

High

Buy gold Gold Charts

 GOLD

08/08/2011

11:09

1700.70

1701.70

+37.30

+2.24%

1691.30

1706.50

Buy silver Silver Charts

 SILVER

08/08/2011

11:09

38.66

38.76

+0.34

+0.89%

38.41

39.85

Buy platinum Platinum Charts

 PLATINUM

08/08/2011

11:09

1713.00

1721.00

-3.00

Comment by truth on August 7, 2011 at 11:57am

S&P head: Agency may downgrade U.S. again

 



 

The head of Standard & Poor's sovereign ratings said Sunday that the agency may downgrade the U.S. again.

"Given the economic and political situation in the U.S., which will we see, an upgrading back to AAA or further downgrades?" Fox News' Chris Wallace asked David Beers.

"We have a negative outlook on the rating and that means we think that the risk currently for the rating are to the downside," Beers said.

While explaining what the U.S. could do to get its AAA rating back, the S&P official mentioned entitlement cuts but ignored the agency's call to raise revenues.

"Does any compromise have to have entitlement reform and revenue increases to be credible?" Wallace wondered.

"The key thing is, yes, entitlement reform is important because entitlement is the biggest -- are the biggest component of spending and they are the part of spending where the cost pressures are greatest," Beers replied.

"The White House as you know is not happy with this decision and they have accused S&P of amateurism. They went through your numbers and found a $2 trillion overstatement of what the debt would be and when they pointed that out to you, you simply changed the rational and continued to downgrade the debt," Wallace noted.


"That is a complete misrepresentation of what happened," Beers claimed. "Here we are talking about highly technical assumptions about projecting budget base lines far in the future. We made the motifications that we did after a conversation with the Treasury, it doesn't change the fact that in our estimation, that even with the agreement of Congress and the administration this past week, that the underlying debt burden of the U.S. government is rising and will continue to rise, most likely, over the next decade."

"The haste with which S&P changed its principal rationale for action when presented with this error raise[s] fundamental questions about the credibility and integrity of S&P's ratings action," Treasury assistant secretary for economic policy John Bellows wrote last week.

White House chief economic adviser Gene Sperling added that S&P's actions "smacked of an institution starting with a conclusion and shaping any arguments to fit it."

"The magnitude of their error combined with their willingness to simply change on the spot their lead rationale in their press release once the error was pointed out was breathtaking," he said.

Beers told Wallace that he did not expect "that much impact" from the downgrade when the global markets open on Monday.

Watch this video from Fox's Fox News Sunday, broadcast Aug. 7, 2011.

"Destroying the New World Order"

TOP CONTENT THIS WEEK

THANK YOU FOR SUPPORTING THE SITE!

mobile page

12160.info/m

12160 Administrators

 

Latest Activity

rlionhearted_3 posted photos
1 hour ago
Burbia posted a photo
6 hours ago
Doc Vega posted a blog post

The Real Explanation of the Mystery Drones over New Jersey Pt. II

  One pilot who studied as a flight engineer before qualifying as a combat pilot spent 11 years…See More
19 hours ago
tjdavis posted a video

propaganda: DIVIDE & CONQUER (1942) - Warner Bros. vs Hitler

Not to be confused with the much drier Frank Capra film from 1943.A "Broadway Brevity", released August 1, 1942. Vitaphone #1022-1023A.Transferred from 16mm.
yesterday
Doc Vega posted blog posts
Friday
cheeki kea commented on cheeki kea's photo
Thumbnail

Thumbs down - ship gone.

" So this sort of stupidity has occurred before. Norway or NZ - Who did it better? Cast your…"
Friday
cheeki kea favorited Doc Vega's blog post The Last Meal
Friday
tjdavis favorited Sandy's photo
Wednesday
tjdavis favorited cheeki kea's photo
Wednesday
tjdavis favorited tjdavis's video
Wednesday
tjdavis posted photos
Wednesday
tjdavis posted blog posts
Dec 17
cheeki kea favorited tjdavis's video
Dec 17
cheeki kea commented on cheeki kea's photo
Thumbnail

Prime clown idiot of the year.

" Stay tuned this prime clown might just resign from his own circus as his Finance Minister…"
Dec 17
cheeki kea commented on cheeki kea's photo
Dec 17
tjdavis posted a video

The Orb & David Gilmour - Metallic Spheres In Colour: Movement 1 - Excerpt (4K Official Music Video)

The 2010 album Metallic Spheres by The Orb and David Gilmour has been reimagined and remixed as Metallic Spheres In Colour. Out now: https://theorbdg.lnk.to/...
Dec 16
Doc Vega posted a blog post

The Real Explanation of the Mystery Drones over New Jersey

 Keep in mind all of the possible implications around the drones reportedly as big as cars being…See More
Dec 16
Sandy posted photos
Dec 16
tjdavis posted a video

Capitol Punishment - The Movie (Updated Trailer)

Order on DVD or Stream it Now: https://givemelibertynow.org/product/capitol-punishment/Told through the eyes of the people who were there on the ground, Capi...
Dec 15
cheeki kea commented on cheeki kea's photo
Dec 15

© 2024   Created by truth.   Powered by

Badges  |  Report an Issue  |  Terms of Service

content and site copyright 12160.info 2007-2019 - all rights reserved. unless otherwise noted