Abridged from the December "Monthly Market Commentary" at GordonTLong.com

Since Bretton Woods and the creation of post WWII Monetary structure, US obligations  were considered risk free and its debt instruments rated as AAA. Global risk  and spreads have traditionally been priced off this foundation. A crippled  dollar and US debt worries has the potential to trigger a global credit melt  down. The 2008 financial crisis with Bear Stearns and Lehman gave us just an  inkling of the magnitude of the problem.

This is forcing a game of Risk Free Counterfeiting to now be played out. It  will end, and end badly. However, at the present time it is considered the  only politically palatable solution.

• There is a Shrinking Need for US Dollars
  • The need for US dollars has fallen from being 71.2% of foreign reserve      currency holdings in 1999 to 58.0% in 2011.
  • The need to hold dollars for oil purchases is being challenged by the      BRIC countries through on-going trade alliances. Alliances that are counter      to the Petro$$ foundation.
  • The US is no longer the dominate global industrial and trading nation      it once was and therefore there is a shrinking need to hold US dollars      for trade settlements,
  • China and a growing list of nations are shifting currency reserve holdings      from US dollars to Gold. China is now accumulating minimally 1,000 tons      per years and will soon be in a position to partially Gold back the Remimbi.

• Global US$ Structured Debt
  • Debt around the world has traditionally been structured in US dollars.      A collapsing US dollar erodes the collateral value of the debt which is      often used as collateral in the Rehypothecation process. This exposes the      world to a collateral contagion of massive proportions.

• Mispriced Risk
  • Monetary Malpractice has its moral hazard and unintended consequences      has led to significant levels of global mispricing and malinvestment. Risk      is no longer being priced correctly as the Fed Valuation Model has broken      down due to sustained, negative real interest rates.

The Currency Cartel

This has forced the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) to facilitate  what can only be called a Currency Cartel to alleviate the daunting global  pressures which the eroding need for US dollars is causing. As the Central  Bankers' Central Bank, the BIS exercises control over the settlement of the  balance of payments and the problems stemming from growing global imbalances.

Effectively, what appears to have emerged is a forced alliance between fiat  currency based regimes, to protect themselves and sustain the faulty system  that emerged from post WWII Bretton Woods. When the US jettisoned its obligations,  and in August of 1971 took itself off the gold standard, the US effectively  defaulted on its obligations as the world reserve currency. Since then it has  been primarily the 'good faith and credit' of the US, that has sustained an  acknowledged failed and broken system. The current US Fiscal Cliff machinations  only bring to the fore the seriousness of any longer considering the US as "Risk  Free" and being a realist foundation for a sound and sustainable global currency  reserve. As true as this is, it is not going to change as long as the status  quo can be protected, and protected it must be!

Similar to the OPEC Oil Cartel protecting the price of 'black' gold, we now  have a Currency Cartel protecting the US dollar, and more specifically, the  fiat currency system which they all are inextricably tied to. It is the basis  for their collusion.

The Currency Cartel is effectively Colluding to Counterfeit "Risk Free".

The US Council on Foreign Relations aptly described why a concept called the "Triffin  Paradox" (we will discuss in more detail) becomes unsustainable:

"To supply the world's risk-free asset, the center country (US) must      run a current account deficit and in doing so become ever more indebted      to foreigners, until the risk-free asset that it issues ceases to be      risk free. Precisely because the world is happy to have a dependable      asset to hold as a store of value, it will buy so much of that asset that      its issuer will become unsustainably burdened."

We have reached the point where the Currency Cartel and the $67T Shadow Banking  System (monitored, but not supervised by the Financial Stability Board (FSB)) is  the only thing standing between us and a violent Fiat Currency Collapse.

Cartel Board Meetings

Place & Time: Bank of International Settlements (BIS), Basel Switzerland  Monthly, Sunday Evening Supper

Key Board Attendees:

Ben Bernanke (US-Federal Reserve)

William C Dudley, (New York Fed)

Mervyn King (UK - BOE)

Mario Draghi (EU-ECB)

Jens Weidmann (Bundesbank)

(Japan - BOJ)

Mark Carney, (Chair FSB)

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