The predictions and guesstimates for how far Walt Disney's Solo: A Star Wars Story will fall over its opening weekend are… varied. I’ve seen everything from a $50 million+ second weekend (-42%) to a $25m second weekend (-69%). If I had to make a prediction under penalty of death, I’d say a 55% drop (about on par with recent Memorial Day openers) for a $38m weekend and an over/under $160m ten-day total.

That wouldn’t be a great look for Disney’s newest Star Wars movie even if it weren’t being ignored overseas. It may not be bad news for Star Wars or Lucasfilm. In fact, from a certain point of view, I might argue that the financial failure of Solo: A Star Wars Story is excellent news for fans who want better (or at least different) Star Wars movies going forward.

First of all, in a vacuum, the choice to replace original directors Phil Lord and Chris Miller with Ron Howard and essentially reshoot 70-85% of the movie was a financial mistake. I don’t know what the budget was when the film was greenlit. I don’t know what the reshoots added to the overall production costs. But I am guessing that Lucasfilm did greenlight a $250 million+ budget for a Han Solo prequel starring an untested leading man and debuting in the heart of a crowded summer season.

Like WB’s post-Batman v Superman decision to bring in Joss Whedon to reshoot/redirect/rewrite Zack Snyder’s Justice League to the extent that it allegedly cost around $300 million, the reshoots and budget overruns turned a disappointing total into a financial disaster. But, with the important caveat that we have no idea what kind of movie was possible with what Miller and Lord were shooting, Lucasfilm’s decision was not made in reaction to a previous movie’s disappointing numbers. The insanely expensive Solo turned out to be yet another example of Kathleen Kennedy sparing no expense to make sure that fans and audiences got what Lucasfilm and Disney considered the best possible versions of Rogue One and Solo.

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