Exercise to simulate flu pandemic

By Mike Wynn
August 3, 2009

It will start with a few scattered cases. But as people shake hands or cough without covering their mouths, it could spread to thousands of victims within a matter of days.

Businesses may have to close, Clark Regional Medical Center could become overrun, and grocery stores might run short on supplies.

That’s the scenario public health and emergency management officials are operating under this week as they participate in a statewide training exercise to prepare Clark County for a possible wave of swine flu this fall.

“I think the exercise is really going to help raise awareness to help us all look at our internal plans and what we would do in the event of a pandemic influenza,” said Scott Lockard, director of public health in Clark County. “I feel like there have been a lot of planning efforts that have gone into this, and this exercise will give us an opportunity to test those plans.”

The state Department of Public Health and the Division of Emergency Management are commencing the exercise today with communities across Kentucky. It is scheduled to last until 1 p.m. each day, ending on Friday.

The Clark County Health Department is serving as the lead local agency in the exercise with help from Winchester-Clark County Emergency Management. Community leaders, County Judge-Executive Henry Branham and Mayor Ed Burtner, plan to participate along with government department heads and school officials.

Gary Epperson, director of Emergency Management, said Clark County will receive updates from Frankfort throughout the week to track how the mock illness is spreading.

Epperson doesn’t know the exact details, but he expects the virus to gradually fan out, culminating in a full-blown pandemic by about Wednesday.

“Most of the counties in the state will be playing to some degree,” he said. “All the local agencies will be playing in this thing.”

Officials plan to remain in constant contact via cell phones and text messages and will send out dummy press releases to practice communicating with the public.

Once the exercise becomes full-scale, officials will probably activate the emergency operations center at the Winchester Police headquarters on Maple Street, Epperson said. From there, leaders will practice decision-making and response coordination.

Among the bigger challenges, officials must decide whether to close public buildings and call off school.

Epperson said as much as 40 percent of the work force may be sick or at home taking care of family during an intense outbreak here. That may cause employee shortages at government agencies. Meanwhile, the Health Department and hospital could face an influx of the sick, he said.

“Everybody is going to be short-staffed, so it is going to present some challenges to say the least,” said Epperson. “There’s going to be a lot of things to talk about.”

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, more than 5,500 people in the United States have been hospitalized with swine flu since spring. Around 350 have died from the illness.

So far, the CDC characterizes the virus as “sporadic” in Kentucky. But, experts expect the number of cases to jump nation-wide this fall.

Lockard said the virus, known medically as H1N1, has shown signs of becoming more prolific while spreading in the southern hemisphere, which is in the midst of winter.


“We are preparing for a major outbreak of H1N1, hoping that we will not see that,” he said.

Epperson urges everyone to have a plan in case the virus becomes widespread in Clark County. He recommended that individuals maintain one to two weeks of water, food and supplies. Businesses should prepare for a deficit in the workforce, he said.

“They need to have some plans and procedures in place about shutting work down,” he said.

In the meantime, he expects Clark County to perform well during the exercise.

“We hope to be a step ahead if this thing turns into a major outbreak,” he said. “We want to know some of the problems we are going to have, anticipate some of the challenges we are going to have.”

Contact Mike Wynn at mwynn@winchestersun.com.

The Winchester Sun 2009