Doug Casey: Prepare for Social Upheaval

L: Tatich, I'm in Minsk, where I just recorded/participated in an illegal march through the city. Opposition supporters rallied... there has been some violence... I hear they've broken into a government building, but I have not been able to confirm that yet.

Editor's Note: For new readers, "tatich" is Mayan for "big chief."

Doug: Sounds like fun. Maybe some appropriate music should accompany the festivities. The Marseillaise worked for the French in the 1790s… let me think… you should play them Street Fighting Man on your iPhone.

L: I should have stayed longer. The crowd seemed to be breaking up, so I came back to my flat, and now I'm seeing reports that the "special police" have turned violent. I left friends there…

Doug: Big group. It's always an interesting question what it takes to get people out in the streets, and then what controls their mood.

L: I've got a bunch more pictures like that. Too bad they don't have V masks, as in the film, V for Vendetta.

Doug: I'm a huge fan of Guy Fawkes, who is said to be the only man who ever entered Parliament with honest intentions. But even more so of V, his near-future alter ego. We should get them some V masks for next time. Everyone, everywhere, should have a V mask hanging in the closet, awaiting the signal to put it on.

L: My friend is back – thank goodness! She says she was on the front line, as the police formed up and pushed people off the square. She says she shouted at them, "What are you doing? We're your brothers and sisters!" and that they were ashamed – but they followed their orders…

Doug: I'm glad she's okay. That's the only problem with these things, they're inherently volatile, unpredictable, and can be very dangerous. Sometimes it goes the way of Tiananmen Square in 1989.

L: The TV news here is saying that it's a smaller number of angry drunk people. It's a lie – I was there, and the crowd was absolutely positive – almost giddy – with people laughing and helping each other. Some strangers helped me climb up on a frozen fountain so I could take pictures. They used the same lies as last time, in 2006; the authorities said the tent city that had sprung up on the main square was just some drug users and advised people to stay away for their own safety. They showed pictures of syringes they claimed to have found in raids, over and over again on TV. This time, they are showing footage of some people breaking the glass door of a government building – my friend says it was KGB agents who provoked the action, that you could see them using hidden radios at times. I saw a guy in plain clothes smash a camera out of a woman's hands, so I'm pretty sure the authorities do have agents in the crowd.

But they're not going to get away with it, this time. There were too many people there – this is a small country, and if 20,000 people who were there each tell 10 others the truth, that'd be about a fifth of the population. People are going to know what happened, this time.

Editor's Note: Two weeks later, Doug and Louis continue the conversation. Meanwhile, thanks to the Internet, powerful images of the violence of December 19 have made the truth available to all.

Doug: About Belarus… It's disgusting how not just lazy but completely stupid and dishonest the media generally are. The reporters appear to be chosen for how credulous and psychologically pliable they are, although factors like how well their hair blow dries and how many producers they sleep with must also be important. They basically just parrot what they are fed from the local media, which, certainly in the case of Belarus, is all controlled by the state – and composed of people just like themselves. Then running dogs of the establishment, editorialists like Thomas Friedman – who's never had one thought in his whole life that was both original and correct – will spin it one way for their crowd, while rabid dogs like Sean Hannity – who's rarely right, but never in doubt – will spin it another way. None of them actually have a clue. I believe 90% of everything in the news is bullshit. I watch it and read it purely for entertainment. And to have an idea what other people are supposed to believe.

But sorry to go off on a tangent. How are your friends in Belarus doing?

L: Only one of my former students was arrested, but many friends of friends were in jail. Most did 5 to 15 days' time and are out now.

Doug: So, what are the implications? Belarus is famous for being Eastern Europe's last communist dictatorship – is there another "Orange Revolution" in the making?

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