http://www.sott.net/article/264163-Rising-food-prices-climate-chang...
"high global food prices are a precipitating condition for social unrest. More specifically, food riots occur above a threshold of the FAO price index of 210."
"When people are unable to feed themselves and their families, widespread social disruption occurs. We are on the verge of another crisis, the third in five years, and likely to be the worst yet, capable of causing new food riots and turmoil on a par with the Arab Spring."The aggregated FAO Food Price Index averaged 211.3 points in June this year, but more telling indicators might be their June 2013 Cereal Price Index, which averaged 236.5 points, and their Sugar Price Index, which averaged 242.6 points. Dairy prices are also riding above this 210 threshold, so when we consider that most people's diets are substantially based on sugar, cereals and dairy, followed by meats from cattle raised on grains, it seems pretty clear that we're very much in the danger zone.
"When you have food prices that peak, you have all these riots. But look under the peaks, at the background trend. That's increasing quite rapidly, too," said Yaneer Bar-Yam. "In one to two years [from 2011], the background trend runs into the place where all hell breaks loose."Compounded by speculators in the commodities markets "making a killing" on the food crisis, prices for staples like corn and wheat rose nearly 50% on international markets last summer. The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) predicts that rising global food demand will "push up prices 10 to 40 percent over the coming decade" [that is, between 10 and 40 percent higher than their current highs].
The Food Crises and Political Instability report doesn't simply compile the correlation between food prices and political uprisings, but also projects a certain global threshold when food price trends might rise significantly enough to spark global unrest. According to the NECSI, the world will reach its food price threshold in August 2013.
"Food shortages undermined earlier civilisations. We are on the same path. Each country is now fending for itself. The world is living one year to the next... Climate is in a state of flux; there is no normal any more. We are beginning a new chapter."Here's what Abdolreza Abbassian, a senior FAO economist, had to say about the global food crisis last year:
"We've not been producing as much as we are consuming. That is why stocks are being run down. Supplies are now very tight across the world and reserves are at a very low level, leaving no room for unexpected events next year."Yes, that means there's no room for unexpected events this year (2013).
Editor and investigative journalist for SOTT.net, Niall Bradley co-hosts the weekly SOTT Talk Radio Internet radio show with Joe Quinn and is an editor of SOTT.net's print publication, the Dot Connector Magazine. Niall's articles are cross-posted on his personal blog, NiallBradley.net, where you can find more of his musings on the end of the world (as we know it).
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