Surplus oil production capacity could disappear by 2012 a report from US Joint Forces Command, says.
Photograph: Katja Buchholz/Getty Images

The US military has warned that
surplus from guardian.co.uk on Oil"">oil production capacity could disappear
within two years and there could be serious shortages by 2015 with a
significant economic and political impact.

The energy crisis outlined in a Joint Operating Environment report from the US Joint
Forces Command, comes as the price of petrol in Britain reaches record
levels and the cost of crude is predicted to soon top $100 a barrel.

"By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as
early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 million
barrels per day," says the report, which has a foreword by a senior
commander, General James N Mattis.

It adds: "While it is difficult to predict precisely what economic, political, and strategic effects
such a shortfall might produce, it surely would reduce the prospects for
growth in both the developing and developed worlds. Such an economic
slowdown would exacerbate other unresolved tensions, push fragile and
failing states further down the path toward collapse, and perhaps have
serious economic impact on both guardian.co.uk on China"">China and guardian.co.uk on India"">India."

The US military says its views cannot be taken as US government policy but admits they are meant
to provide the Joint Forces with "an intellectual foundation upon which
we will construct the concept to guide out future force developments."

The warning is the latest in a series from around the world that has turned
peak oil – the moment when demand exceeds supply – from a distant
threat to a more immediate risk.

The Wicks Review on UK energy policy published last summer effectively dismissed fears but Lord Hunt, oil"">the British energy minister, met concerned industrialists two weeks
ago in a sign that it is rapidly changing its mind on the
seriousness of the issue.

The Paris-based International Energy Agency remains confident that there is no short-term risk of oil
shortages but privately some senior officials have admitted there is
considerable disagreement internally about this upbeat stance.

Future fuel supplies are of acute importance to the US army because it is
believed to be the biggest single user of petrol in the world. guardian.co.uk on BP"">BP chief executive, Tony Hayward, said
recently that there was little chance of crude from the carbon-heavy
Canadian tar sands being banned in America because the US military like
to have local supplies rather than rely on the politically unstable
Middle East.

But there are signs that the US Department of Energy might also be changing its stance on peak oil. In a recent interview
with French newspaper, Le Monde, Glen Sweetnam, main oil adviser to
the Obama administration, admitted that "a chance exists that we may
experience a decline" of world liquid fuels production between 2011 and
2015 if the investment was not forthcoming.

Lionel Badal, a post-graduate student at Kings College, London, who has been researching
peak oil theories, said the review by the American military moves the
debate on.

"It's surprising to see that the US Army, unlike the US Department of Energy, publicly warns of major oil shortages in the
near-term. Now it could be interesting to know on which study the
information is based on," he said.

"The Energy Information Administration (of the department of energy) has been saying for years
that Peak Oil was "decades away". In light of the report from the US
Joint Forces Command, is the EIA still confident of its previous highly
optimistic conclusions?"

The Joint Operating Environment report paints a bleak picture of what can happen on occasions when there is
serious economic upheaval. "One should not forget that the Great
Depression spawned a number of totalitarian regimes that sought economic
prosperity for their nations by ruthless conquest," it points out.