With 13,111 New Peace Voters, Ron Paul Can Win the Iowa Caucus

If 2008 turnout and a recent Des Moines Register poll give an accurate picture of what would happen if the Iowa Republican presidential caucus were held today, that would indicate that the addition of 13,111 new peace voters by January 3 could carry the Iowa caucus for Ron Paul.

I claim the following:

1. It is plausible that this result could come to pass, and therefore the attempt to bring it about is a winnable fight. The number of potential voters who need to be moved is "relatively small," and while victory would require some 13,000 peace voters to behave differently than they have behaved in the past, the rare absence of a contested Democratic presidential caucus, combined with the unhappiness of peace voters about the war in Afghanistan, the failure of Washington to significantly cut military spending, and the prospect of U.S.-Israeli military confrontation with Iran create ideal conditions for mobilizing peace voters to behave differently than they have behaved in the past.

2. If this project were successful, the benefits to the majority of Americans who oppose current war and military spending policies would be significant    It would alter the national political narrative, shift debate inside the Republican Party on peace and military spending issues, disrupt national Republican efforts to attack President Obama "from the right" on "national security issues," create more space in national media for Republican peace voices, speed the end of the war in Afghanistan, increase the likelihood of significant cuts to military spending and the closing of foreign military bases, and make a U.S.-Israeli war with Iran less likely. 3. The relative political, financial, and opportunity costs of the effort would be relatively small.

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