Olle Fjordgren, 64, has spent many years on international security work during his long and diverse career. He has been hired as an advisor by the governments of Pakistan, Ethiopia and Mongolia, he has drunk tea with Taliban in the Hindu Kush Mountains and swam with sharks in the Red Sea. In other words, he is not a person who annoys himself unnecessarily. I interviewed him for the first time in 2013, for the newspaper Dispatch International, and already then he was very concerned about the development in Sweden. Among other things, he said:
- Right now we are in a low-intensity asymmetric civil war and the criminals are gaining. They have begun to decide and society gives in. We have to turn that development immediately and understand that it is about professional criminals, not about the lack of Ipads or concrete filled sandboxes.
Now, five years later, Fjordgren believes that the criminals are not just winning, they have won in many areas that he rightly calls no-go zones.
"Now we reap the dragon seed"
- We are now reaping the killing seed of the policy pursued. The political unwillingness to see how badly it is, in combination with inability and ignorance, has led to Sweden being very close to becoming a failed state, where the state does not own the monopoly of violence anymore.
This, therefore, from a person who has seen closely what it looks like in countries such as Pakistan, Afghanistan and Ethiopia. But that's not strange, says Olle Fjordgren. In the countries we call banana republics, where the state apparatus is weak or non-existent, where all groups are prepared to defend themselves and their closest, no one trusts that the state will do that. In this way, a kind of terrorist balance or informal justice is achieved. When Sweden as a state now begins to lose its grip, the Swedes stand as hands-on as children in the forest and do not know how to behave.
- Society plays according to old, outdated rules. The police roam around and patrol in the traditional way, but then we have the opposing side, the criminals, who play according to completely different rules. It is only to realize that the other side has a completely different attitude to power and violence. They have a violence capital that we cannot really grasp, says Olle Fjordgren.
Locked for the foreseeable time
According to him, the recipe for this is zero tolerance according to the New York model. More resources for the police, put together all the crimes committed, no penalty rebate, stricter weapons laws, the three strikes and you're out principle - that is, at your third serious crime, you will be locked in for the foreseeable future.
- The judiciary must ensure that these dangerous people are incapacitated and removed from the streets, which is the only way to access the problems.
The "Enjoy the Sin" model, with dalt, coffee and buns, which one likes to engage in in Sweden, he does not give much to. It is up to the residents themselves in the exclusion areas to get in the collar and get out of there, dispose of drugs and crime. Everyone has an individual responsibility for themselves. If this continues, Olle Fjordgren sees only one possible development in the extension - civil war.
- Absolutely. Look at what happened in Lebanon, when the power struggle between the various groups eventually reached its boiling point. In Sweden, it can be started in the exclusion claves, by the clans and the gang leaders, or the day when the Swedes finally get enough and decide that there is no other way out than to take weapons. There are people with high levels of violence even among the ethnic Swedes, you should be clear about that, warns Olle Fjordgren.
Yet it is not too late
He emphasizes that it is not too late, even if the clock is five in twelve. But then the politicians must scratch their courage and stop seeing their own interests.
- That it has become this way I mean is an unfortunate combination of voice fishing, that you want to try to get in touch with the groups it is about, and that the racist card has quickly emerged as soon as someone tried to challenge the problems. The politicians must be prepared to really act decisively if we are to have the least chance of breaking the development.